I will continue to add updates on this one from now on.
Currently in the pipeline:
JP Morgan and Bank of America ban credit cards payments for purchasing cryptocurrencies
6th February 2018 - CFTC and SEC hearing - issues on USDT and Bitfinex, and possibly also about cryptocurrency ETFs and BTC 2.48% trading, about safeguarding investors. Hearing will be broadcast online.
G20 Summit - March (28 Feb -1 March, and 17 - 20 March)
Personally I feel cryptos are in a medium-term (several months long) bear market. We will see several bounces probably.
I don't think BTC 2.48% application will be approved by the SEC, at least not this year.
Please be mindful that these are my personal views, and I respect everyone's opinion.
Please do comment and share your thoughts. I have been wrong before and do not get offended if I am proven wrong; but so far I have been mostly right with my charts.
Nothing is certain in the cryptoworld.
LTC probably will go up this week.
But be mindful of BTC's charts as well.
Just my personal view.
I could be wrong though.
Green dotted lines represent possible support levels. Trade with caution.
ETF is not happening. When people find this out (en masse), we may possibly see a huge dropping spike. That would be a great catch though. Range can be around 1k to 3k.
From crypotowat.ch. I use it to analyze and compare several prices at the same time. GIves me a bit better monitoring control at times.
Notice the relationship with 50, 100 and 200 EMA lines on the 2 hour chart. Path of least resistance is still down for now.
" I am not gonna kill ya. I am just gonna hurt ya really, really bad!"
I am expecting a multi-month bear market now for BTC.
Reason? Regulation of cryptos, the way that the governments what it to happen, is equivalent to centralization. This takes away the purpose of cryptocurrencies. The blockchain is not completely anonymous.
Once that happens, it will be like you are giving a screwdriver to a person to use it with the caveat that he cannot use it on any screws. Or a knife that does not cut.... you get the point.
Eventually, purpose will be the driving force behind cryptos. Hence ETH, NEO, IOTA and XRP will survive and perform better in the future.
The next 48 hours will be very important for the cryptomarket. The best trader/investor hopes for the best and prepares for the worst.
I wish everyone all the best.
Once again, these are my personal views.
Note the next support levels. Currently BTC is hovering around the 7.2 and 7.4k levels.
Tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. EST (or 15:00 GMT/UTC).
These scams are not what we need at this time.
China is the model and other countries will follow it partially or completely.
In 2014, trading cryptos against RMB was the main issue which Chinese authorities identified would undermine their currency. They interfered in 2014 - start of the bear market. Ross Ulbricht case and fall of Mt Gox acted as catalysts. BTC was associated with illegal drugs trafficking in a lay person's view. BTC fell several times and eventually hit the bottom at around $150-$160 in August 2015.
Since September 2017, China successfully eradicated cryptocurrency trading (to the best that any country can do) and eventually plan to remove all commercial mining.
This time it is even bigger. BTC is now associated with terrorism. Wannacry hacks, exchange hacks, thefts at gunpoint, ? North Korea stealing cryptos and South Korea raising market prices????? This is all in front of us.
The next financial crisis will be a big challenge. Governments can control the price of gold and metals, but cryptos is beyond their reach.
So? This is happening systematically.
2. Credit card bans.
3. Banking regulation - a customer will have to satisfy the banks the money was made legally. In UK, right now it is impossible to get a mortgage if a customer made money from cryptotrading and wants to pay the deposit amount from those profits. Of course if they have become millionaires they can buy the house in cash, but not get a mortgage. Link below:
4. Extreme scrutiny of cryptotrading to avoid money laundering and financial crimes in every manner - currently in progress. SEC and FCTC meeting today, another meeting on 14th February, G20 in March. Worst examples have been created by scammers already. ICOs were examples. Another example is this one.
We are looking at a systematic pattern. Happened in 2014, and is now happening again.
Now I know many people will call this all FUD. Please read this article. This was published by the chief editor of coindesk.
FUD means Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt based on 'FALSE' information. Since all of the above is true, I don't accept this is FUD. to me, this is going to give us all a great buying opportunity at some point in March.
Wish everyone all the best.
Just comparing the RSI here
SEC chairman Jay Clayton has stated that he does not know the reasons that make bitcoin so volatile. Right....
BTC ETF is not going to get approved this year until SEC feels 'comfortable' that BTC is able to fulfil their criteria, i.e. not too much volatility. ;)
Sell volume ~269,000 BTC sold
Buy volume ~219,000 bought.
Current market is tradeable, but not investable.
IF THIS IS ARTICLE IS TRUE, especially the conspiracy about the disappearance of 120k BTC on 2nd August 2016, It can lead to an extremely bad outcome for the entire cryptocurrency market worldwide. This article provides an detailed timeline of Tether/Realcoin and Bitfinex.
There are several articles which have been published today in succession on various websites regarding Tether. Now I am not sure if they are 100% true or not, but I do tend to keep myself up-to-date with news more than ever before. The above article is true. I have researched the timeline on google and it all adds up.
Other articles that I found:
The right shoulder turned out to be smaller then anticipated, but anyway.
BTC is likely to face major resistance between the range of $9000 and $9500. Expect some pullback. Another leg down to retest the lows cannot be ruled out at this time.
I expect another leg down at least. If BTC breaks the previous low, then 4500 is the final support level. If that happens, basically sell every other commodity, house, wife, kids, parents, pets, and whatever, and buy crypto if you can. You can buy them back later with the profits ;)..... Just kidding.
14th February and 15th February are important dates.
This one was published in February 2014. It is very interesting, especially what Vitalik Buterin said about the possible Bitcoin price in 2014-2015. A few were realistic, but apart from 3 or 4, no one was right.
We are seeing a very similar picture at this time.
I think 2018 should be the year of 'cleansing'. All the useless ICOs and scams should be removed. And in my view, every exchange should follow KYC and AML laws so that that there are no further blocks ever of these kinds getting in the way. Regulations will slow down the progress initially, but they will safeguard everyone in the long run. This is my personal view. On the flip side, regulations also mean that cryptos will become semi-centralized. The anonymity will be gone for good.
Once again, just my personal view.
Wave 1 looks complete at 9k, but may go to 9.5-9.6k range (still possible)
Wave 2 to 50% retracement at least (from 9k to 7.5k or from 9.6k to 7.7k range)
Wave 3 to 11.5-12k range next.
Fundamentally, next week 14-15 Feb are important dates.
Bearish... double H&S
And then we also have a bullish H&S formation.
No trading advice...
I once again think we are going to be in a multi-month bear market with BTC price moving between 5-10k ranges this year, or may be even lower.
This market needs the cleansing. Removal of all scams, all manipulators, all dodgy exchanges no matter how big or small they are. Once that is done, we can see the true ones rise.
G20 Summit in March
This is not going to help.
Hopefully the CFTC chairman will at least say something about the issues with Tether and Bitfinex tomorrow whilst discussing the matters of cryptocurrency regulations and cross border agreements.
I may be wrong about this and it might go all the way up to 11.5k to 12k region.
I am not going to be able to follow the charts for a few days. I am hence not trading at all.
Wish everyone all the best.
This chart also shows the H&S pattern along with Fib levels showing possible rectracement to 50% and will likely continue to go up. Historically after a week of rise, the weekend is when pullbacks occur, and vice versa.
Wish everyone a happy weekend.
On a log scale however, there is still room for further movement.
HOWEVER, looking at the recovery, BTC has doubled in price since 6th of February 2018, i.e. within 2 weeks! On GDAX, the price went from $5873 to $11775 in two weeks' time.
In terms of news, EU regulators will have a discussion on cryptocurrency regulation next week on Monday the 26th of February 2018.
I have been in this market since 2013. 60k BTC is Not happening this year, unless something extremely big happens. Regulations will not raise the price. In 2017, good news were the catalyst. In 2018, give me a single 'big' good news and I will gladly admit that I am wrong.
I have used XRP recently to move funds between major exchanges. It took anywhere between 5 to 30 seconds to move the funds. I do not like the coin, but it is really FAST.
IOTA is going to climb the charts later this year at some point.
NEO and ETH will take control. Flippening will happen sooner or later this year.
BTC will likely test 5k-6k within the next 7 days, and probably sooner.
Once again just my thoughts.
By the end of March BTC may even test 3k. It is still possible. All depends on the G20 summit outcomes.
And not FUDding, but I do not feel comfortable with how South Korean prices are changing rapidly. They used to have prices around $2k above western prices. Now they are around $500 lower. This is not a coincidence.