ETHBTC Perspective And Levels: Bearish Momentum And Supports.

5. Sept. 2017

ETHBTC Update: As these two markets retrace timing a new long position in ETHUSD is not easy because there will be many false starts and a ton of noise. To help filter out the noise, an evaluation of this pair provides clues and a much clearer picture as far as when to expect a more supportive environment.

A couple of traders have recently brought this pair to my attention along with ETC because they have been valuable in providing more clues about the ETHUSD price action. And it makes sense because many investors who are in ETH, have bought into it with BTC. And looking at this chart after the recent pull back in ETHUSD, it appears this market offered many hints that the upside was very limited when ETHUSD was pushing the 390 area and as one trader said, "Everyone was painting rockets." (That is hilarious and so true).

So after evaluating this pair further, there are levels on this chart that can signal when consistent buying returns to the ETHUSD market and can help form more reasonable expectations, and not "rockets".

First let's begin with the broad Elliott Wave perspective and what it means for the long term. Clearly we are in a Wave 2 and these are corrective waves that often unfold as some form of triangle or range bound market. The good news is that when Wave 3 unfolds on this degree, it implies that ETH has the potential to reach targets like 460 and into the 500s. The not so good news is that it has quite a few resistance levels that must be compromised along the way before ETH has that kind of potential and at the rate ETHBTC is moving at the moment, this can take weeks or months, especially in light of the current bearish momentum.

So in order to signal that consistent buying is back in the ETH market, this pair needs to break the .07356 minor resistance which is the .382 of the current bearish swing. Until that happens, do not expect much on the upside anytime soon. No rockets here, more like rocks. That would prove bullish momentum is returning, but after that it needs to take out the .07783 to .08092 resistance zone followed by the .08306 to .08781 resistance which is where it peaked (and established a lower high) when ETHUSD was in the 390s. Both of these zones are .618 areas of the recent bearish swings and serve as good reference points to help evaluate the upside potential of ETHUSD.

In light of these levels, current price momentum is still bearish and is more likely to test supports before stabilizing. The first level is the .06598 which is a triple bottom but because of the lower high established at .08482, price is more likely to break this support and retest the .06248 to .03894 area which is relative to the .618 of the previous bullish structure. This kind of price action is typical of a Wave 2 because remember the rule is Wave 2 does not retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.

In summary, this pair is still generally bullish on the big picture and offers plenty of opportunity to buy into just not right now. If you are day trading, there will be many opportunities long and short in the ETHUSD pair as ETHBTC fluctuates between these support and resistance levels but if you are trying to position for a longer time horizon, this chart clearly shows now is not the right time. Price action indicates more bearish signs and until a resistance is taken out, you are better off waiting if you are looking to establish a new long position or add to a core position. It is a lot less stressful to build positions in short term bullish momentum than bearish, even though you may not get the "best" prices, you get to sleep better at night. As a swing trader I will be observing this chart to help guide my decisions in the ETHUSD market. And thanks again to the traders who brought this chart to my attention.

Comments and questions welcome.

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