The Rise and Fall of ETH Part 3 (The great bull trap) update

POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
1210 9
Capitulation by year end? 3d chart.
Kommentar: CBOE news and market is a bit overextended...should at least rally to new resistance (former support) and possibly even all the way to next resistance around .55 (big gap in between).

I do not think it will last though.
Kommentar: Playing out as shown in initial chart i guess...time for the dead cat? All depends on btc. Ultimate destination is the same IMO
Kommentar: EW analysis, if 0.03 holds I think wave 4 of c is in progress:
Kommentar: forgot the y letter
Kommentar: Still waiting, probably will follow litecoin. Charts not all that different.
Kommentar: bull div starting to form just like ltc weeks ago...
Kommentar: Update. Nice move up, as expected, don't think it's over yet. Let's zoom in, here's the 4h view, just a guess of how this could play out.
great analysis - you have some update?
coinwide coinwide
@coinwide, thanks for the update
I didn't check this pair since months. My idea: Not parallel downtrend channel. Your December low doesn't fit to log scale ETH/USD pair compared with (my) logical BTC low in USD pair. ETHUSD is at around 110USD in mid December. While I see BTC going down to 4500-4800USD. Afterwards relief bounce. I drew the line from top in March/May straight trough the low in December 2017. Combined with your upper trendline of downtrend channel it becomes a 4 year falling wedge. Is that even possible/valid? The touch point ETH/BTC in December is at around 0.023. 110USD in ETH is more or less precies and divided with 0.023 we get the target for BTC at ~4780USD. Legit Target.

I can't imagine an uptrend with ETH at 300USD and low in ETH/BTC pair at 0.015. In this case BTC would be worth 20k at ATH. Price action looks like we go down, so for me the falling wedge and touchpoint at ~0.023 makes sense.

What do you think? Cheers
MichaelShutterbug MichaelShutterbug
@MichaelShutterbug, The falling wedge trendline at peak March/May back in 2016 weekly chart.... forgot to mention that. Those peaks to the December low in 2017 through the middle of the huge red wick and toching the end of the green candle wick from 11th to 18th of December. This leads to low touch point at 0.023 in December this year. Now it should work:-)
MichaelShutterbug MichaelShutterbug
@MichaelShutterbug, additionally there is also a horizontal support at ~0.023/0.024 from July/Sept 2016 which crosses the mentioned wedge line in December this year. Weekly RSI in ETHBTC has already bullish divergence and is at 29.7 oversold. That is also a reason not to go down to 0.015. It is barely possible RSI wise. We already saw the lowest low in RSI since ever. If We reach 0.023/0.24 this could confirm a further bullish divergence but somewhen then in December I expect a April like bounce, caused for example by bakkt going live. Onyl a few weeks, but it would be enough to reset indicators for further downside in 2019.
RichiRichi MichaelShutterbug
@MichaelShutterbug, cut the drug-induced hypomania:D
@RichiRichi, LOL, but I was close. Didn't trade anything. ETHUSD pair in log scale left the downtrend even to the downside. Now I think 35-45USD for ETH by March 2019 is possible. Insane.
All hail ETH/BTC master Joe.
Btw, have you noted the closed longs on Finex? They sat through June's entire bull run and didn't close until the top of this corrective move around February. Market share declining again.
+1 Antworten
btc_joe RichiRichi
@RichiRichi, haha.

+1 Antworten
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