European markets have started the week with a positive sentiment after Friday's bullish close on Wall Street, with the USA500 reaching 5000 points. In particular, the IBEX 35 has woken up with the same momentum, although the Italian index has reflected this the most in the early hours. From the end of October to the beginning of December, the IBEX experienced an increase of 16.23%, reaching record highs. During the holidays, the Spanish index remained sideways, with a pullback towards the end of January to 9791.65 points, before stabilizing in the trading area of 9897.82 points. During the first week of February, it touched the middle zone of the Christmas sideways channel around 10123.65 points, and is currently forming a downtrend to return to the levels of the second half of January.
Today, the price is trying to break the bearish channel and seems to be recomposing and consolidating a bullish structure that could take it up to 10157 points, where there are multiple trading tops that the index has failed to overcome throughout the month. It is important to bear in mind that the IBEX 35 has a significant weight in the banking sector, and its correlation is not as marked with the US market as it might seem, but its movements are reflected more through the performance of other banking indices such as the EURO STOXX BANKS FUTURES (EUREX).
The RSI divergence is at 60%, indicating that there is still room for a bullish move. This week, the Spanish market is awaiting several important data releases, such as bonds, consumer data, inflation and last month's CPI which will be the key news on Thursday. Although expectations are not very positive, with forecasts of higher inflation and lower CPI, these results could have a negative impact on the index. We will be watching to see how this news affects the direction of the market throughout the week.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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