Long $DIS, might regret

6. Okt. 2023

DIS might be oversold, at least in the near term. It has been selling off at a parabolic rate for over 2 years (starting Mar '21), but has recently shown signs of a bottom.

Signs of bottom (maybe!):

- Price has been declining at a parabolic rate for years but Weekly RSI seems like it might be showing a weak trend reversal starting around June '22
- Price might close above both TK lines on the Daily
- Possible Weekly TK clamp?
- Price has reached peak bottom COVID crash in 03/2020, potential support?

Reasons I'm wrong:

- The Weekly cloud looks...not great
- Price is below a sizable chunk of volume per VPVR, next support not showing until $68 (seems bad)

Would be bad if:

- A close below $78 on a Daily candle, and especially a Weekly
- Weekly RSI breaking down from wedge to LLs

Would be good if:

- Break parabolic downtrend on Weekly (close above $85)
- Continuing strength in Weekly RSI
- Bullish TK cross on the Daily
- Price trading above 50day MA

POSITION UPDATE:

Kid and I ape'd into a small position with an avg cost basis of $81.39.

23. Okt. 2023

Anmerkung

Update

Volatility in the market seems to be increasing, and DIS isn't out of the woods yet. Encountered expected resistance at $85, and looks like it might be forming an inverted head&shoulder on the daily.

Earnings less than 2 weeks away. At this point, it feels like a small gust of wind could either lift our sails or capsize us.

13. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

A little over a month into the trade and things are looking good. A recap:

After entering on Oct 6 the lows were again tested around $79. The bulls answered by retesting $85-$86 before earnings; the bulls won.

Investors heard what they wanted on the call and price jumped rapidly in after-hours trading, peaking around $91. In the two trading days since, price seems to be stabilizing with a significant amount of volume support below.

We still don't know if this is a larger trend reversal or a temporary mean reversion to the 200day moving average.

I've added to my long.

29. Jan.

Anmerkung

Weekly candle opened in the cloud and has started strong. I don't expect a close above $100 with earnings next week, but if this week provides a nice setup along with good news on the call...

Position unchanged, still long.

8. Feb.

Anmerkung

: )

3. Mai

Anmerkung

It looks like DIS is forming a head and shoulders after the Feb earnings gap up. Most of the volume since Feb earnings has been at the neckline.

I've exited my position and will be looking to re-enter around $100.