30 Days Later – Italy vs. US
As the Coronavirus continues to spread throughout the globe without any cure or treatment, researchers have been left with nothing but data to help predict and counter the disease. This being a novel virus, even our data sets are tremendously lacking.
We must make do with what we have, and 4 months into this global pandemic it seems that Italy has been taking the blunt of this disease; Creating a benchmark for other countries to compare.
There are numerous articles out there comparing the United States to Italy, many of which only compare the total number of cases. Based on that factor alone, the US is in far worse shape than Italy being approximately 8 days behind on the outbreak.
At the time of writing this article, Italy is at 110,574 cases while the US is nearly doubled at 209,071 cases of the COVID-19 virus.
Comparing the two countries should not end at the total number of cases. There are far more ways to analyze the available data to see how the United States and other countries compare using Italy as a precedent.
Population Factors
One of the largest factors to consider are the two counties populations. Italy’s population is ~60.5 million people while the United states is over 5 times the size at about ~330 million. Right there you can see that comparing the two countries based on the number of cases is not enough. The case comparison above shows the total percentage of the country’s population affected by the coronavirus. Offsetting Italy by 8 days, you will see that the United States is fairing much better when it comes to the total percentage of the population affected. Using Italy as a precedent, Day 33 of the outbreak Italy was at 0.123% of their total population infected, while the United States was at 0.074%. Today Italy is at 0.19%.
Transmission Rate
Based on the total percentage of the population, the data shows that Italy is in far worse shape than the United States. However, this could change at any time based on how quickly the disease is spreading throughout each country and how each country manages the spread. The Transmission Rate is generated by the number of new cases each day compared to the day before. Looking at transmission rate data above, you can see that the United States has been greatly higher than Italy over the last two weeks. Though the US transmission rate seems to be dropping a considerable rate, it is still at 14.1% compared to Italy’s 4.2% which seems to be leveling off. Getting this factor as low as possible will be key to controlling the spread around the globe.
Breaking the data down, the chart below shows the number of new COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths per day between Italy and the United States. Looking at this data we can determine that Italy’s number of new cases seems to be dropping each day from their peak on March 22. This shows that the measures the country is taking to battle the Coronavirus could be working. IF the United States similar measures as Italy, they should start to see a decline in the number of transmissions per day. “Flattening the curve” to say.
Mortality Rate
One of the scariest data sets to compare is the COVID-19’s mortality rate. Currently the United States has a 2.55% mortality rate which is well below the global average of 5.23%. These factors are based on confirmed cases and deaths. Italy, however, is at a whopping 12.25% mortality rate. Meaning more than 1 out of 10 people who contract the disease is expected to die. The most chilling thing about this is that all three averages have been increasing each day. Clearly after seeing these values we can see that the United States is fairing off much better than Italy for the time being. Knowing this, there are three major factors to consider:
Recovery Rate
This data is petrifying, however, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Recovery rates around the world are on the rise. Currently it is estimated to take 2-3 weeks to recover from this disease, meaning the current data available is only a small reflection of what has yet to come. The chart below shows both Italy and the United States’ recovery rates as of today. Italy being 8 days ahead of the US, has a significantly higher recovery rate. Within the coming months I expect both values to increase greatly, better reflecting true recovery rate of COVID-19.
I would like to thank TradingView for making the COVID-19 data available on their platform. This has allowed script writers like myself to break the data down, analyze, and share information through this global pandemic.
During this global pandemic, there is limited information available on the COVID-19 disease itself. However one thing we do have is data; and we get more of this every day.
The indicator referenced in this article will be made available to the public so that you can tract this data in real time. You will find it under the scripts tab on my profile page.
*Case comparison is based on the previous days data.
We must make do with what we have, and 4 months into this global pandemic it seems that Italy has been taking the blunt of this disease; Creating a benchmark for other countries to compare.
There are numerous articles out there comparing the United States to Italy, many of which only compare the total number of cases. Based on that factor alone, the US is in far worse shape than Italy being approximately 8 days behind on the outbreak.
At the time of writing this article, Italy is at 110,574 cases while the US is nearly doubled at 209,071 cases of the COVID-19 virus.
Comparing the two countries should not end at the total number of cases. There are far more ways to analyze the available data to see how the United States and other countries compare using Italy as a precedent.
Population Factors
One of the largest factors to consider are the two counties populations. Italy’s population is ~60.5 million people while the United states is over 5 times the size at about ~330 million. Right there you can see that comparing the two countries based on the number of cases is not enough. The case comparison above shows the total percentage of the country’s population affected by the coronavirus. Offsetting Italy by 8 days, you will see that the United States is fairing much better when it comes to the total percentage of the population affected. Using Italy as a precedent, Day 33 of the outbreak Italy was at 0.123% of their total population infected, while the United States was at 0.074%. Today Italy is at 0.19%.
Transmission Rate
Based on the total percentage of the population, the data shows that Italy is in far worse shape than the United States. However, this could change at any time based on how quickly the disease is spreading throughout each country and how each country manages the spread. The Transmission Rate is generated by the number of new cases each day compared to the day before. Looking at transmission rate data above, you can see that the United States has been greatly higher than Italy over the last two weeks. Though the US transmission rate seems to be dropping a considerable rate, it is still at 14.1% compared to Italy’s 4.2% which seems to be leveling off. Getting this factor as low as possible will be key to controlling the spread around the globe.
Breaking the data down, the chart below shows the number of new COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths per day between Italy and the United States. Looking at this data we can determine that Italy’s number of new cases seems to be dropping each day from their peak on March 22. This shows that the measures the country is taking to battle the Coronavirus could be working. IF the United States similar measures as Italy, they should start to see a decline in the number of transmissions per day. “Flattening the curve” to say.
Mortality Rate
One of the scariest data sets to compare is the COVID-19’s mortality rate. Currently the United States has a 2.55% mortality rate which is well below the global average of 5.23%. These factors are based on confirmed cases and deaths. Italy, however, is at a whopping 12.25% mortality rate. Meaning more than 1 out of 10 people who contract the disease is expected to die. The most chilling thing about this is that all three averages have been increasing each day. Clearly after seeing these values we can see that the United States is fairing off much better than Italy for the time being. Knowing this, there are three major factors to consider:
- This data is based on ‘Confirmed’ cases and deaths. Meaning there could be numerous positive COVID-19 cases that have not been tested.
- Italy’s median age is significantly higher than the United States. Unfortunately, this disease is known to target older, immuno-compromised adults.
- The United States is 8 days behind Italy, meaning only a small percentage of the current Covid-19 cases have had time to mature enough to result in an outcome. Therefore it is possible to see a sudden increase in this value.
Recovery Rate
This data is petrifying, however, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Recovery rates around the world are on the rise. Currently it is estimated to take 2-3 weeks to recover from this disease, meaning the current data available is only a small reflection of what has yet to come. The chart below shows both Italy and the United States’ recovery rates as of today. Italy being 8 days ahead of the US, has a significantly higher recovery rate. Within the coming months I expect both values to increase greatly, better reflecting true recovery rate of COVID-19.
I would like to thank TradingView for making the COVID-19 data available on their platform. This has allowed script writers like myself to break the data down, analyze, and share information through this global pandemic.
During this global pandemic, there is limited information available on the COVID-19 disease itself. However one thing we do have is data; and we get more of this every day.
The indicator referenced in this article will be made available to the public so that you can tract this data in real time. You will find it under the scripts tab on my profile page.
*Case comparison is based on the previous days data.
Creator of DepthHouse Indicators on TradingView!
↣ depthhouse.com/
↣ depthhouse.com/
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