DAX 20.000, January: Signs of Market Capitulation


If you follow closely german stockmarket analysts then you might have mention this:

Only 4 weeks ago the bias was deeply short. No one predicted, that the DAX might be there where the DAX is today.

Guess now what´s happens today: Stockmarkets analysts now predicting that the dax might rise now further to 11.620-11.680. What does this mean? Only two weeks ago the same analysts are prediciting that the DAX will go lower to 11.000 - 10.800. Some of them left a lot of retail investors behind with short positions betting the DAX to fall more than a few point below 10.600-10.800. This is a miss of almost 1.000 Points in less than one month only.

And again: Analyst today talking like business as usual about almost 11,7 k are the same wich are talking about that the DAX has ---> to go down and maybe ends 2016 with 9.XYZ. And this is a huge miss of allmost 2.000 Points, folks.

Trade ist aktiv: Keep an eye on "seasonals":

If you follow this chart than we need to keep in mind, that from a historic perspective stockmarkets usually falling until the middle of the year. You can see this in the chart, if you open this link:

What does this mean? If ever a stockmarket is going higher when usualy you need to expect a downtrend (from a historic perspective) than i call this a "countertrend" in my own words. Usually i do not trade countertrades unless i got forced to do this. This is what happens right now so thisfore i could back my exposure to stockmarkets but i am still "in".

What we might need to expect after the Trump election is, that Donald Trump is willing to deliver an extra bright "honeymoon" to get a high approval rating for his presidency. If ever this might be his intention than watch huge inflows in US-Stockmarket funds to push the Dow Jones Index higher and higher. On day this needs to end in a conflict with the US Fed, to stop higher stockmarket prices with rising fed funds rates. If ever stockmarkets might crash about this conflict Donald Trump is out of the woods. Stockmarkets might crash end of 2017 and Donald Trump can tell to Janet Yellen: "You´re fired".

United States presidential approval rating - Wikipedia

Presidential Approval Ratings | Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends

take care, folks.
Kommentar: What to expect in the next month?

I guess:

First month up: ---> sweet and bright honeymoon rally caused by Trump
Later this year down: ----> Trumps sweet honeymoon is over

Kommentar: Watch Gold tommorrow to follow the down trend like before:

Trade ist aktiv: Market Capitulation

Germany´s DAX will open today with a measuring or runaway gap. If ever you follow stockmarket analyst you will learn today and the next 3 days that all of them will not care about theire own prediction maybe only a few days or weeks old that the DAX will not cross 10.800, 11.000 or 11.400 allmost ----> for ever (!). Most of them predicted the DAX to fall below 10.000 early this year and to re-test the lows from January 2016 (8.700).

They will left behind theire followers having still some shortpositions.

Todays Numbers:

DAX short 73%
Dow short 74%
SPX short 64%

Gold long: 87(!) %

Watch all this numbers to change in the next trading days to become "positiv" and stay there for longer time. Keep in mind that this bearish outlook for DAX & Dow you can read in the numbers above now last for more than 6 month.
If ever this number will be more positive than we see ----> today THE Stockmarket Kapitulation. The DAX might not go below 11.550 before this up trend is over. This can last for days, weeks, month or if ever it runs really bad for the bears, for some years.
Kommentar: Record Inflows in ETF´s will global fuel any rally in major stockmarket Indexes


ETFs globally gather record cash in 2016 -BlackRock
Economy58 minutes ago (Jan 03, 2017 05:00PM ET)
By Trevor Hunnicutt

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors funneled $375 billion into exchange-traded funds in 2016, investment manager BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) said on Tuesday, a global record that came as investors looked to cut costs.

The total, which is preliminary, compares with $348 billion in 2015 and includes a record $286 billion haul in the United States, home to the funds' biggest market.
ETFs are a basket of stocks or other assets traded by individual investors and institutions. Fund managers from BlackRock to Vanguard and Schwab offer index ETFs that try to track, not beat, the market. They have sliced management fees on some funds to as little as $3 annually for every $10,000 managed. All three companies announced price cuts last year.
Those low fees along with other cost savings and conveniences have helped the more than $3 trillion ETF business take assets from rival financial products, including actively managed funds that attempt to beat the market but may fall short of that goal.
U.S.-based active stock funds recorded $288 billion in withdrawals in 2016, the largest on record, according to preliminary Thomson Reuters Lipper data through November.
ETF issuers were also able to draw investors into "smart beta" products that often attempt to beat the markets but do so based on a set of rules governing how they invest, rather than a portfolio manager making those calls. The products can be pricier for investors than traditional index funds while still undercutting active managers.

"The fact that we're at new-record inflows with such a slow start is a pretty strong reversal," said David Perlman, an ETF researcher at UBS.

Markets started 2016 in bad shape, after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates and as oil prices cratered. Stocks managed to rebound from a February low, but events including the U.S. presidential race and the British vote to exit the European Union kept investors skittish.

Money moved to the perceived safety of the fixed-income market, and BlackRock's early data showed bond ETFs taking in a record $115 billion in 2016.

BlackRock, with $1.3 trillion in global ETF assets, is the largest provider of such funds. Its iShares ETF brand attracted $140 billion globally during the year, BlackRock said, describing that figure as a record.
In the U.S., BlackRock attracted $105 billion into ETFs during the year, followed by Vanguard's $94 billion, State Street's $52 billion and Schwab's $16 billion, according to separate estimates by FactSet Research Systems Inc.

Kommentar: The Nikkei is sending right now another strong signal arround the world. Mondays spike in the DAX and yesterdays in US-Indexes is followed by a 400 point gain in the Nikkei closing in 20.000 as the FTSE/mib and the DJIA will do today as well. Expect all 3 Indexes to clise above 20k in the next trading days.
Trade ist aktiv: DAX set up hours before the NFP´s:


CBOE Intraday P/C-Ratio 1,16 ( 1pm).

The odds are good that any suprise on Friday might be on the upside. Again.
Kommentar: Comment: Watch on Monday the FTSE/mib for rocket straight up gains.

The reason why:
Trade ist aktiv:
Kommentar: Jan. 17, 2015

Todays Presidential approval rates showing very clear that Donald Trump is the most unpopular President since at least 40 years. Even Trump is blaming again "the polls" as rigged he has a similar situation in the election campaign.

First he blamed "rigged polls" than he fired his team.

US-Congressmen and Women are elected for two years only. They will not follow a president with such low approaval rates for a longer time. Expect that Trump might stop his agressive tweets and become more calm for some weeks and month. If ever this might occur now than expect stockmarkets to go higher.!/q...
Kommentar: Jan. 25 2017
The DAX today is showing the evidence of market capitulation (short sellers/perma bears). The DAX jumps up with a measuring gap after high expectations about a sell off after the Trump Inauguration did not occur. Today you can read in any trading chat in clear words that traders are starting to give up to short stockmarkets. Also the pundits now talking the stockmarkets "up". This is a u-turn within 4-5 weeks only.

Watch this chart to understand what happened today:
Kommentar: Jan 31 2017

Quote: Euro zone growth outpaces the US for the first time since the 2008 crash
Silvia Amaro | @Silvia_Amaro

Euro zone officials received a slew of good news on Tuesday morning with stronger-than-expected growth and inflation figures and a falling unemployment rate. The 19-member economy saw GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 0.5 percent in the last quarter of 2016 compared to the previous three-month period, and the preliminary figures also showed a 1.8 percent rise compared to the previous year. As a result, in the whole of 2016, the euro area grew 1.7 percent.
This means that for the first time since 2008, during the height of the global financial crisis, the euro area's GDP rose at a faster pace than the U.S., according to official data. Last week U.S. authorities said the economy grew only 1.6 percent in 2016, its weakest pace since 2011. Source:
Kommentar: odays Presidential approval rates showing very clear that Donald Trump is the most unpopular President since at least 40 years. Even Trump is blaming again "the polls" as rigged he has a similar situation in the election campaign.

First he blamed "rigged polls" than he fired his team.

US-Congressmen and Women are elected for two years only. They will not follow a president with such low approaval rates for a longer time. Expect that Trump might stop his agressive tweets and become more calm for some weeks and month. If ever this might occur now than expect stockmarkets to go higher.
Kommentar: Quote:
Trump Enters Office With Historically Low Approval Rating

by Mark Murray

Donald Trump starts his presidency Friday with the lowest-ever ratings for an incoming president, but also with some signs of increasing optimism for the country, according to results from a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
A majority of Americans — 52 percent — say they disapprove of the way President-elect Trump has handled his transition and preparations for the presidency, versus just 44 percent who approve, which is down six points from only a month ago.
To put Trump's numbers into perspective, Barack Obama's approval rating was 71 percent before he took the oath of office in January 2009, and Bill Clinton's was 77 percent in December 1992.
(The NBC/WSJ poll didn't measure George W. Bush during his transition; his first job-approval rating, in March 2001, was 57 percent.)

Kommentar: Quote:

‘Sell the inauguration’ speculation is stock-market ‘nonsense,’ says Wall Street bull

Published: Jan 14, 2017 2:15 p.m. ET

Expectations for at least a near-term stock-market correction once Donald Trump takes the presidential oath of office on Jan. 20 are running high. But one well-known Wall Street analyst argues that investors should shut out the speculation.
In a Friday note, Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, observed that, based on client conversations, a number of investors are convinced stocks are set for a “meaningful correction.”
At the same time, he said, those clients aren’t looking for a prolonged bear market, but are instead cooling their heels in hopes that a pullback will offer better buying opportunities, particularly once the odds of Trump’s proposals becoming enacted is more clear.
Kommentar: Donald Trump on dec. 19th 2017: This is not what the consensus view is expecting to happen on todays inauguration.

Speaking at a pre-inauguration concert Thursday night at the Lincoln Memorial, which featured performances by Lee Greenwood, Toby Keith and 3 Doors Down, Trump told the crowd he vowed to be a president "for all our people."
"It's a movement like we've never seen anywhere in the world, they say. There's never been a movement like this. And it's something very, very special," Trump said. "And we're going to unify our country. And our phrase, you all know it -- half of you are wearing the hat, 'Make America great again.' But we're going to make America great for all our people, everybody. Everybody throughout our country. That includes the inner cities. That includes everybody."

Kommentar: Jan 25, 2017

U.S. share indexes set record highs as Trump policies spur investors
Stock Markets24 minutes ago (Jan 25, 2017 03:54PM ET) - U.S. share indexes rose to records on Wednesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 20,000 for the first time on Wednesday as strong earnings and President Donald Trump's pro-growth initiatives reignited a post-election rally.
Trump has made several business-friendly decisions since taking office on Friday, including signing executive orders to reduce regulatory burden on domestic manufacturers and clearing the way for the construction of two oil pipelines.
The Dow was last quoted at 20,072.13, up 0.80%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.85% to 2,299.35 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rose 1.01% to 5,657.79.
Trump has also proposed tax cuts and higher fiscal spending working with a Republican-controlled Congress.
Kommentar: Comment: 01/26/2017

Watch todays Lindsey Grahams comment on twitter

Border security yes, tariffs no. Mexico is 3rd largest trading partner. Any tariff we can levy they can levy. Huge barrier to econ growth /1
1,092 replies 7,528 retweets 14,604 likes

Simply put, any policy proposal which drives up costs of Corona, tequila, or margaritas is a big-time bad idea. Mucho Sad. (2)

Now check how many Senators Donald Trump can affort to loose more:

Lindsey Graham made the point: Not Mexiko is paying "The Wall". It is the U.S. consumer. Guess how many more senators might vote with a "NO".

USDMXN follow this logic for sure. The peso today again strengthen against the US Dollar - no matter what Donald Trump is telling or "repeating".
Kommentar: Gallup: Trump Net Approval Rating Drops 8 Points In First Week In Office

President Donald Trump’s net approval rating dropped by eight points in his first week in the Oval Office, according to daily polls tracked by Gallup.

On Sunday Jan. 22, two days after being sworn in, 45 percent of respondents said they disapproved of Trump’s job performance and 45 percent approved. By Friday Jan. 27, the percentage who disapproved rose to 50 and percentage who approved dipped to 42. Trump has had a busy but rocky first week in office, signing off a series of executive orders laying out major policy changes like a temporary ban on refugees and on citizens from seven majority-Muslim nations. He had a friendly meeting with British Prime Minister Theresa May on Friday, but raised tensions with Mexican president Enrique Peña-Nieto over his insistence that Mexico will pay for a southern border wall that the country does not want. Other national surveys show similarly low approval ratings for the President. Forty-four percent of respondents to a Quinnipiac survey released Thursday said they disapproved of his handling of the presidency thus far, while only 36 percent approved. Source:
Kommentar: Jan 30 2017 Trump is going to loose the Senat

McCain, Graham lead in GOP criticism of Trump ban ...

Republican Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina broke the GOP silence on Capitol Hill on Sunday to issue a scathing condemnation of President Donald Trump's ban on travel to the United States from seven Muslim-majority countries. ....
... t was the strongest criticism Trump has faced yet from the right, as congressional leaders largely deflect questions about the ban and aides say Trump is doing exactly what he pledged he'd do on the campaign trail. ...
.... That could change this week when lawmakers return to Washington and the Senate considers several of Trump's Cabinet nominees' confirmation ...

....On Capitol Hill, many GOP offices were non-responsive in the 24 hours after the executive order was signed, though more are now making statements.
The reason, according to GOP sources in both chambers, was two-fold: They were left out of the loop by the White House before the travel ban was announced, and they see political risk coming from both directions.
"Support it and get hit, oppose it and get hit," one GOP source said. "There will be time for discussion about this. Right now we'll let the administration take the lead." ...
Kommentar: Jan 30 2017:

The New York Post
New life for Mike Pence’s tweet calling Muslim ban ‘offensive and unconstitutional’

Published: Jan 29, 2017 7:06 p.m. ET

An old assertion of Vice President Mike Pence’s raised eyebrows over the weekend as it emerged from the annals of Twitter — and stood as a direct contradiction to President Donald Trump’s new executive order banning immigration from Muslim-majority countries.
“Calls to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. are offensive and unconstitutional,” then-governor Pence tweeted at 7:30 a.m. on Dec. 8, 2015.

Kommentar: Feb 01 2017

After 13 consecutive days of something like a "Trump nightmare" expect stockmarkets to return to daily business focused on earning and global growth. Watch the NASDAQ Comp for another unexpected ATH in the next days lead by APPL, FB & TSLA.
Kommentar: Februar 02 2017: U.S. Retailers starts to fight back.


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Kommentar: Feb 02 2017 Geopolitics will move the stockmarkets. This news is suprising traders:

Quote: UN Ambassador Haley hits Russia hard on Ukraine

(CNN)The US Ambassador to the United Nations offered a strong condemnation of Russia in her first appearance at the UN Security Council on Thursday, calling on Moscow to de-escalate violence in eastern Ukraine and saying that US sanctions against Moscow would remain in place until it withdraws from Crimea.
"The United States continues to condemn and call for an immediate end to the Russian occupation of Crimea," said Nikki Haley, President Donald Trump's envoy to the world body. "Crimea is a part of Ukraine. Our Crimea-related sanctions will remain in place until Russia returns control over the peninsula to Ukraine."
Haley was speaking at an emergency UN meeting about a sudden upsurge in violence in eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian army. Her remarks were notable for the stark difference between her rhetoric and Trump's.
On the campaign trail, the President hinted he might recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea. In the weeks before and after his inauguration, Trump's refusal to condemn Russian hacking during the election and his attacks on the intelligence community for investigating those hacks raised questions about his ties to Moscow.
Kommentar: Feb 08 2017 What ever happens in the White House or the Oval Office. Only Minuts or Hours later you can read anything in the news. This never happened before. Here is the reason why:

Quote: The Fix
The leaks coming out of the Trump White House cast the president as a clueless child

All White Houses leak. Sometimes the leaks are big, sometimes small. But there are always people willing to talk to reporters about the “real” story or about why the chief executive made a mistake in regard to some decision he made.

That said, I've never seen so much leaking so quickly — and with such disdain for the president — as I have in the first six days of Donald Trump's presidency.

Two recent examples:

1. This from the New York Times today on Trump's impulsiveness:

Mr. Trump’s advisers say that his frenzied if admittedly impulsive approach appeals to voters because it shows that he is a man of action. Those complaining about his fixation with fictional voter fraud or crowd counts at his inauguration, in their view, are simply seeking ways to undercut his legitimacy.

Yet some of his own advisers also privately worry about his penchant for picking unnecessary fights and drifting off message. They talk about taking away his telephone or canceling his Twitter account, only to be dismissed by a president intent on keeping his own outlets to the world.

2. This from WaPo on Trump's inauguration crowd estimates:

Trump’s advisers suggested that he could push back in a simple tweet. Thomas J. Barrack Jr., a Trump confidant and the chairman of the Presidential Inaugural Committee, offered to deliver a statement addressing the crowd size.

But Trump was adamant, aides said. Over the objections of his aides and advisers — who urged him to focus on policy and the broader goals of his presidency — the new president issued a decree: He wanted a fiery public response, and he wanted it to come from his press secretary.

Time and again, the image of Trump pushed by his “aides” is one of a clueless child — someone who acts on impulse, disregarding the better advice of people who know better. We know he needs to be managed or else he will say and do stupid things, the message seems to be. We're working on it. And what we know about Trump from his presidential campaign is that some of his top staffers — most notably Kellyanne Conway — often communicated to the boss via the media. What that strategy suggests is that Trump is influenced at least as much — and, in truth, likely more — by reading the sniping of his aides on background (meaning without their names attached) in the news than he is by private conversations. That the best way to reach him, change his mind or otherwise bend his ear is through a public airing of grievances. Trump has shown that his tendency to obsessively consume media — especially cable television — is unchanged in the six days since he has become president. He appears to be making policy decisions via things he watches or reads. (Remember Trump's famous/infamous statement that he got his military information and advice “mostly from the shows.”) At odds with all of this, however, is the fact that Trump is both deeply proud and hugely image-conscious. Having to read and watch allegedly loyal “aides” casting him as a sort of feckless child constantly in need of guidance wouldn't seem to be the sort of thing that would sit well with him.

Read more:
Kommentar: Feb 08 2017: Game Changer: Donald Trump is - probably - going "to fire" Sean Spicer. Expect that he is going to fire Kellyanne Conway next and finally Steve Bannon. You did not believe in any "Trump Holliday"? Be prepared - it´s comming soon and once more the majority of traders - even retail of pro´s - get caught on the wrong foot (the same what we say in our german language as well)

Quote: White House ramping up search for communications director after Spicer's rocky start

By Jim Acosta, CNN Senior White House Correspondent

Updated 0502 GMT (1302 HKT) February 8, 2017
sean spicer dana bash _00030115

Washington (CNN)The White House is ramping up its search for a new communications director in an effort to lighten the load of embattled White House press secretary Sean Spicer, multiple sources told CNN.
A source familiar with internal communications said President Donald Trump is disappointed in Spicer's performance during the first two weeks of the administration.

Spicer has served as both White House press secretary and communications director for the new administration. Those roles are typically filled by two staffers.
Former Trump transition spokesman Jason Miller was originally tapped to serve as communications director for the White House, but Miller stepped aside before Inauguration Day to spend more time with his family.
A longtime Republican operative, Spicer is a close ally of White House chief of staff Reince Priebus. According to the source close to the hiring process, Trump is upset with Priebus over the selection of Spicer for arguably the administration's most visible position, next to the President.

Kommentar: Feb 08 2017: All Comments above you can read here:!/q...
Kommentar: MAR 01 2017: The DAX: Impressive weekly candle wipping out this widely anticipated "sell signal" from last friday. Germany´s DAX is ready for a new ATH.
Kommentar: MAR 15 2017: German GDP growth likely accelerated in Q1 2017
Kommentar: MAR 29 2017: After Hours DAX 12.240 - just 150 point missing for a new All Time High.
Kommentar: APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council
(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source:
Kommentar: US-Bond markets ends a 20-year long bull market during the summer 2017. Yields rising. T-bond are under rising pressure now:

Kommentar: On October 25th 2017 Stockmarkets first time reacted to rising yields. Please click on both charts below and above to load new bars and comments.!/Z...
Kommentar: On october 26th US stockmarktes made on of the largest intraday sell offs in 2017 - triggered by rising US yields. The VIX showed what happened. Same time it was another buy signal for US Stockmarkets.
Kommentar: The VIX 2 trading days later:

Kommentar: Stockmarket reaction is typical for the final inning: Rising wedges are broken to the upside:

Kommentar: Bullish sentiment is rising. In 2017 the AAII Investor Sentiment was just 7 times above the historic average but its going to rise now into bullish extremes:
Kommentar: The overwhelming market pessimism all over 2017 limited any downside potential all year:
Kommentar: Not only in the USA. This momentum is globally.
Kommentar: What's next?

The overwhelming pessimism in 2017 is extending the up side momentum until now. Short sellers are forced to cover all shortpositions until end of 2017 to avoid further losses.

Same time rising US Bond Yields are now the major threat even for US Stockmarkets than for all global stockmarkets as well. The few technical analyst being long and right all year now starting to become more cautious. Two sentiment indicators showing that the ongoing upmove is likely to end in a medium top by end of the year 2017. It is the US based Greed & Fear Index and the long term sentiment indicator. Both are entering now extreme readings indicating a sharp downmove to come after a few weeks from now.

Q1 and maybe Q2 2018 likely to bring a short or medium term sell off based on Donald Trumps upcomming impeachment procedure and rising US Bond Yields. To time this short or medium term market top it looks like it could be arround the last 2 weeks of 2017.

Any market downsidemomentum in 2018 will be a corrective one of "minor trend". The upsidemomentum is going to continue end of 2018 and will bring later new all time highs for the DAX. The 20k will be approached before 2020.


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