Math isn't mathing! Long $CNC for earnings

22. Juli

- I'm taking contrarian stance on CNC as fears are overdone.
- CNC has cash in hand around14 billion and market cap is around 13.5 billion.
- I call bullshit on the market. Math isn't mathing.
- Company isn't going bankrupt. There are headwinds but they will navigate the headwinds and return capital to investors.
- This is not a startup coming out of no where. It has 2 decades of experience navigating difficult times than this in the past be it GFC, Dot Com crash, Covid crash or other bureaucratic hurdles.

22. Juli

Anmerkung

In a bear-case worst scenario (policy cuts plus execution missteps leading to near-breakeven profits), perhaps the stock could drift lower into the low $20s or high teens – but that would imply near bankruptcy valuations for a company still doing ~$150B in revenue

22. Juli

Anmerkung

- P/S is 0.08
- Better than feared report will lead to huge short covering rally.

23. Juli

Anmerkung

- There huge risk to the upside rather than the downside as market participants are too pessimistic and pricing CNC as if it is going bankrupt.

- Please note that CNC makes real revenue and net income in billions. The headwinds are just challenges they will have to navigate which they most likely are going to address via hiking premiums.

23. Juli

Anmerkung

- Closing above 7 SMA would be nice :)

24. Juli

Anmerkung

- Sold pre market at 29.xx for 5% was expecting overreaction by market participants
- Bought back CNC at 27.xx after 7% pull back

24. Juli

Anmerkung

Implied volatility is +/-9% for tomorrow's earnings

24. Juli

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The way market is selling CNC they need to absolutely come tomorrow and tell that they are going out of business. So many cry babies in the markets.

25. Juli

Anmerkung

$23.26 should serve as some support if you look at the declines levels on the left.

25. Juli

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Glad that I had deep in the money covered calls for my shares to protect from the downside and switched to long dated call option for enjoying any upside

25. Juli

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CEO calmed investors and assured long term fiscal targets in tact. Repricing strategy 2026 is coming

3. Aug.

Anmerkung

- $23.26 should be the bottom. At these levels, it's undervalued fundamentally and stock is priced for bankruptcy.
- Potential upside 60-100% in next 2 years

4. Aug.

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Bottoming in process!
- Dowside risks << Upside risk
- Worth buying some good chunks in 23-27 range

15. Aug.

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CNC : Time for mean reversion! $35+ before the year end and next year well above $40

18. Aug.

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- Bearish to bullish CNC let's go!

- This company was priced for bankruptcy! This company makesb profit in billions

29. Aug.

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- CNC is ticking time bomb. We are getting close to 2026 and re-pricing of policies is coming which will lead to improvements in margin and profitability.

31. Aug.

Anmerkung

CNC is making bull flag. Hopefully 35+ soon

3. Sept.

Anmerkung

CNC closed above $30 bucks on September 3, 2025

9. Sept.

Anmerkung

- Consolidation and building momentum today on September 9, 2025
- shorting CNC currently is fuel to the fire.
- Easy re-rating story for 2026.

9. Sept.

Anmerkung

- Please note that if thought UNH was undervalued then CNC is double undervalued plus rocket fuel because CNC market cap is quite low and CNC is also increasing premiums starting next year. I believe CNC has potential for faster 2x

vor 20 Stunden

Anmerkung

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