BTC re-accumulation (short-term analysis)

2. Nov. 2023

BTC had risen from $28000 to $36000 in just two weeks, equivalent to a gain of 30%, making october once again "Uptober". However, the correction has just started because we are facing a key-level, the Fib 0.5 (see screenshot below)

With the latest moves of BTC since a week, my hypothesis is that BTC is in a re-accumulation period which can last for some weeks (even a month or more). Here are some highlights of my projection:

1. The lowest level of this correction would be the EMA50D level (around $31000-$32000).
   
2. If the EMA 50D holds well (on weekly time-frame preferably), then this will be a basement so that BTC continues to revisit the $36000 level, break it and reach $41000-$42000 (i.e Fib 0.618).
   

I'll update this chart in comments, so don't hesitate to come back, read them and share your feedbacks.

Weekly view with Fib levels


Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on my personnal views and is not a financial advice. Risk is under your control.

2. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

My Short setup is as follow:

3. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

Update: Move SL to lower level

3. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

Update:

4. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

I set SL to entry. Wait for the next 'big' move

5. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

Here is my view for BTC and Alcoins based on USDT.D (Dominance). As we can see, USDT.D is very close to its strong support. Normally, bounce is expected when USDT.D touches this support. This bounce implies that BTC will correct (around 10-15% approximately).

5. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

Along with USDT.D move (see comment above), it seems that the another (and the last?) push to retest $36000 is likely.

6. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

BTC is going up but very very slowly. Everybody seems to have the same question: When will be the big move? May be in two or three days?
My prefered scenarion is as in the following screenshot:

7. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

BTC would bounce from the support trendline

7. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

Update: BTC did bounce from the support trendline. Possibly, it is the last spike before big sell. I'll consider opening SHORTs around the yellow targets

8. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

It seems that we are close an impulse of BTC. Let's see if this one happens and can hold or just like two previous ones:

8. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

Just to be more clear: If daily close above $36000, I'll not be opening Shorts. Instead, I'll wait more for weekly close. Because if weekly close is also above $36000, BTC will go higher, normally. Please check the weekly chart in the main post.

9. Nov. 2023

Anmerkung

The move is some how as planned however need to wait for 4H candle to see if the channel was brokend and successfully retested, or BTC will fall into the channel (false break-out-> go down to 33000s-$32000)

10. Nov. 2023

Trade wurde manuell geschlossen

The ascending channel is broken and being retested. It seems that BTC will continue to go up to $41000-$42000. I end this analysis here. Thanks for reading.