Baghodlers wiped out at the bottom as usual + time to go to ath

17. Nov. 2020

***************** Part 1: An expensive but valuable lesson for Bitcoin bulls *****************

I have not heard much from Bitcoin "investors" in the past 12 months.
This is what I kept repeating back then (2018-2019):
"
The bear market is not over/2019 is a fake bull market (hundreds of them laughed at me)
They will refuse to sell until Bitcoin goes into panic mode and there is extreme violent selling, THEN they will disappear (maybe a bit before maybe a bit later)
You won't hear again from them
They will miss the actual next bull market
"

And what did happen? Haven't heard from them since then 😏
A few people had youtube channels so we can see them closing them, also not posting anymore, and a few have at least made a goodbye video.
I think the bulk really left in Q4 2019 - Q1 2020. Mostly during the scaaaary selling.

I am not making this up. You can view my past ideas.
Here is the last BTC idea that got a lot of attention from haters calling me an idiot. Feb 21. 54 comments.

After this it stopped. I was not getting dozens of hate comments anymore. They just went poof. Who's the idiot now?
Checking some profiles, no ideas in 7 months I wonder why. Oh someone is bullish on alts that are down and never going up.

I posted an alarmist idea in March 2019 when Bitcoin was really down and bagholders were very scared.
The amount of hatred I got was interesting. I got even way more than usual. They were in anxiety mode.

And they are all gone.



Markets are very good at finding peoples breaking point. Bitcoin found crypto investors breaking point. A very valuable lesson.
Some of them might return to trading in the future, like some people came back "older and wiser" after getting burned during the dot-com bubble.
And the cycle will repeat itself endlessly.

This is actually the most Bitcoin has falling in 24 hours at least since 2013.








On Bitfinex, bottom 2 was more scary.


Still, the March 2020 scare was a 50% drop in 24 hours and this never happened before as far as I know.
Not only was it brutal but there was a first part with a massive drop in a couple of hours then a break where baggies were relieved for sure "the worse it over", and then just a few hours later they got hit with another brutal candle that went much further down.
The 2013-2015 bear market ended with 30% drops "only".
For sure Bitcoin bulls panicked and saw it going straight to zero "this is it", "it's the end".
They clearly were an over emotional bunch. Glad most of them are gone.

I want to look at it one more time. It feels good to.






You know I tried catching the bottom but that was ridiculous

Posted these ideas 3 days apart (Bitcoin going to zero and Bitcoin going to 10,000 when it was at 8300):

***************** Part 2: Bitcoin long target reached *****************

Follow up to this:

Got to target but does not mean it is over.
European regulators banning bitcoin cfd right when the bagholders were about to make some money 👍
So typical and therefore so predictable
People can keep criticizing me insult me but I will keep being right

Already 8.5R here! This means it would cover 8 losses. I could be the biggest fool and lost 8 times in a row and still come out ahead.
And it's just the start imo. Because I am waiting for the vertical move and I have no seen it yet.
My trailing stop is at 4R right now.

20. Nov. 2020

Anmerkung

Most Bitcoin traders use a random method called technical analysis so I think it is likely they will short, which might be an opportunity to buy a bit more for the final explosion up.



Was not really a thing back then...



Maybe it's more some kind of disbelief or 3 year bagholders finally being able to breakeven.

Either way, still waiting for the big boom.







Maybe there will be big FOMO when the price breaks ath, maybe there will be big selling (and maybe it does not even get there).

I do not really know but the plan is to expect the price to continue going until the herd fomos in (like they panic sold in march 2020 or got euphoric in June 2019), everyone loses it and it gets really stupid completely vertical for hours to days, and then be ready to jump out of the sinking ship when it finally crashes.

An interesting thing to note:



We're not at the very bottom though





1.618^4

It's very often (3) to (4)

The top would be anywhere from 18000 to 25000 here.



Seing where we are in the rally, and the price action of 2020 (since March) I think the top would be close to 25000 than 18000





Since I posted that many screenshot, might as well add 1 more.
I made a script long ago to catch BTC bottoms.
Oh wait no I made that script during BTC bottom in March xd

'nyway, good time to look at it again





And that's it, there is not much more I can do imo here.
I would like to. Always seems too light but there is not much more that can be done at the level of 1 trade.
Just learn more from history and do general research, build up that intuition and get a feel of what will happen with the global economy politics tension and mentality.