Short

$BTC Heikin ashi + gann fan + levels for downtrend

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BTC looks to be topping soon, on a break of 1/1 which I think is likely in April. To help judge important levels to the downside, I created this chart with a Gann Fan and important levels of support/resistance.

If we break the 2/1 level after the 1/1 level, then the 8/1 level is in play. Those will be important levels to watch in the coming months.

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So far, so good. Haven't gotten the break of 1/1 yet... My guess would be we go sideways for a while before breaking down. Maybe take us until June/July before we see a break down.

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Current thinking is we see lows in the low 20k range somewhere between Sept - November. Mainly because of how bullish everyone is and because everyone thinks it's not possible at this point. But let's see. We'd need a break of the 1/1 trend line for that to set up the possibility of lower prices.

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Update: Broke 1/1 and hit the first support perfect. I think we bounce higher here. I expect a retest of the 1/1 trendline sometime between now and July before continuing the move down. Important levels and dates on the chart.

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Update: Second support hit. Two more levels to the downside now: 22k -> 9k

Next indicator of more downside will be a break of that 2/1 level.

If that happens, I think that 9k support gets tested. Let's wait and see. I'm aiming to be in cash by July/August if this plays out as BTC would bring everything down with it.

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Tested the 2/1 of the gann fan. Now I think we see a bounce to the $48-53k range before falling further. Let's see.

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I think we turn higher from here. That second test of the gann fan at 29.5k should've been the short term low. Looking for higher until the pivot on August 16 or Sept 6 before we see the break of 2/1 which would send us lower.

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It does look like Sept 6 was the pivot high. BTC looks to be starting it's next leg down now. We likely move sideways until that next October pivot to give alts time to run. Let's see what happens from there.

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Got the retest of the 1/1 gann fan, let's see if that confirms it as resistance or if it's able to break through it.

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Second test of the 1/1. Let's see if price now corrects from here. I lean towards price moving down now.

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Broke the 2/1, technically price just turned bearish. Increases the odds now of hitting the bottom target.

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Next rejection of the Gann fan. Lower we go. Next target 23k.

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hit. This is where I'm buying BTC for a trade. Could see it bouncing higher from here before eventually getting down below 10k

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The next logical place for a bounce would be mid 16ks

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Price hit 15.8k today. Likely to see $12.9-13k to mark a short term bottom. Then I expect a run back to 22k-32k before eventually finding our way back down to the 9k bottom. Timeframe: Before July for the bottom to be hit.

benjihyam

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