Predictive Analysis of the Next Megabull Cycle at Halving 2016

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Full credit initially for this chart goes to JoeBu on Trading View. He was kind enough to share his initial chart with me.

This is an updated chart following my last chart on the failure of the megabull that occurred after January 15th. This chart is my predictive forecast on the occurrence of the next Megabull cycle after our latest failure at the double top ATH high of 500/470. Although all those Megabull cycles might have occurred when Mark Karpeles was in charge of Mt. Gox failed exchange with the use of the Willy bot which drove the market higher each cycle, I believe we still have the chance without Willy to have another Megabull cycle once we reach the end of the big yellow triangle at halving 2016 on approximately July 16th per the Bitcoin Halving Clock

Bearish New Cycle Begins:
Before the 36th day of consolidation ended, Bitcoin washed down $100 down from $450s to $350s as I had anticipated on my previous charts, and the bulls failed to recover quickly upwards above $425 and remain above it to regain the lost highs and break out from the triangle's top. We instead had a series of fake outs to $420s (bull traps) which retraced quickly down to $370s where sideways took over. This sets the short-term trend to very bearish as:

  • For the first time since 2010 or 2012 the Megabull Cycle failed to occur after 36 days of consolidation
  • Previous double top ATH $1170/$980 and $680/$660 we have now a new ATH at $500/$470 (patterns are repeating and fractals as well)
  • We broke down the big yearly bull round bottom as seen in my chart here:

So what's next? We must retest $360 bottom of the small triangle and see if it holds for a temporary double bottom and retest of $440. However, the likeliness of that scenario is rather low, hence I am expecting 350-360 support to fail and if volatility picks up then we will hit $325-315 where I strongly suggest to buy as the 1D RSI will be oversold for a bounce up to $350 then back down Or from $350 we could get as high as $424-414. There is also a slight chance that if $300-320s do not hold then with max volatility I expect a quick wick to $275 (strongly suggest to buy or put orders there) then an immediate recovery to $300 and $315-320s.

Bear targets summary:
$360-350 (if you are buying here have very tight stoploss at $347)
$325-315 (recommend to buy)
$275 (achievable with max volatility only)

For now the bulls do not have a case in my opinion until the halving. If I see a change I will first post on my twitter account and then follow up with a new chart when I have time on TV.

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