EW suggests this might be impulse leg A, and that after recovery, there might be another leg C down, however assuming we get a sentiment shift, we may be able to avoid a leg C; perhaps forming a simple pullback, a triangle, or something else.
The sentiment is still pretty bad. Most people are still pretty . There is also still far too many longs vs shorts. Of course, many people believe we hit a bottom, but since there is no follow-through up here, and not enough buying to push us up more, I suspect we may get one more move down.
My target is around 4.8k - this is due to the monthly I made in my last chart. However, it could fall short of this - perhaps forming a large A&E, perhaps just retesting the 6k area, or something like that. I expect either two of these things to happen - (1) a very strong bounce, almost instantaneously coming to form a ih&s head, to the current 'top' of 9000. or (2) forming a triangle at the bottom as a form of wyckoff accumulation.
Please note that I don't believe this is the end of bitcoin . I also believe that this is simply a reflection of the MACRO market sentiment. Stocks have dumped too, bond yields are up so people aren't interested in risky assets right now. It's bad timing. I believe that when general sentiment returns to the markets (and it will - the economy is healthy after all) bitcoin should see, at the very least, a very nice bounce with 100%+ ROI .
That's all folks!
Looks like this has been invalidated. Hopefully good for a move up for 12k, to test the 4hr cloud bottom (not shown)
Happy trades :)