JackMush
Short

Bearflagging for another move down (sorry guys :( )

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
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I had a lot of hope, however, despite the incredible amount of volume at the 6000 bottom, it appears we are flagging for one move down. I suspect this will be the last move down.

EW suggests this might be impulse leg A, and that after recovery, there might be another leg C down, however assuming we get a sentiment shift, we may be able to avoid a leg C; perhaps forming a simple pullback, a triangle, or something else.

The sentiment is still pretty bad. Most people are still pretty bearish . There is also still far too many longs vs shorts. Of course, many people believe we hit a bottom, but since there is no follow-through up here, and not enough buying to push us up more, I suspect we may get one more move down.

My target is around 4.8k - this is due to the monthly fractal I made in my last chart. However, it could fall short of this - perhaps forming a large A&E, perhaps just retesting the 6k area, or something like that. I expect either two of these things to happen - (1) a very strong bounce, almost instantaneously coming to form a ih&s head, to the current 'top' of 9000. or (2) forming a triangle at the bottom as a form of wyckoff accumulation.

Please note that I don't believe this is the end of bitcoin . I also believe that this is simply a reflection of the MACRO market sentiment. Stocks have dumped too, bond yields are up so people aren't interested in risky assets right now. It's bad timing. I believe that when general sentiment returns to the markets (and it will - the economy is healthy after all) bitcoin should see, at the very least, a very nice bounce with 100%+ ROI .

That's all folks!
Kommentar:

Looks like this has been invalidated. Hopefully good for a move up for 12k, to test the 4hr cloud bottom (not shown)

Happy trades :)
Swing and a miss bro
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JackMush georgebluth
@georgebluth, well, it was worth a shot, i hate shorting, but thought I'd take the contrarian way :P (actually, i didn't put my money where my mouth was, it was just speculation.) anyway, i'm happy bitcoin is rallying again. especially with the beautiful CFTC statement. I'm hoping we can see 15k again at least.
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georgebluth JackMush
@JackMush Agreed, we'll get 'em next time Jacky
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thank you master! have a nice day.
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@KurtHan, the pattern has now been invalidated, I think it might be good for a move up above 10k. But let's see what happens. I still have a long open from 6k.
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KurtHan JackMush
@JackMush, Thank you very much master. Same here. I have long term funds from around 6k. Others doing a short term trade. Appreciated and hope you are okay and wish all the best with you. :)
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