Possible H&S Scenario or Invalidated In March?
*Note: The weekly closing prices are the green line inside the descending channel of daily closing prices*
I am relatively new with crypto trading so I apologize in advance if any of my TA or reason/logic is "unconventional"...
If H&S plays out then buying anywhere in this range we are currently in (~
42K) *should be relatively sound for a long as we've already wicked the potential neckline and the most likely place to go from here is back up to form the top of the right shoulder at/near the indicated price level in the chart.
Once price hits peak to form top of right shoulder naturally, a rejection is expected back down to the neckline (~
39K) where I think one of two scenarios could play out:
1. A bounce off the neckline support level back up (a rare ~15% of the time invalidation of H&S where price does not drop below neckline) if the news of the first rate hike is better received (dovish based on the record high inflation rates i.e. .25% vs .5%). Not a normal reaction if following a H&S pattern up to then but the March timeframe is expected to be a volatile one for obvious reasons and it also likely coincides with the timeframe we'd be looking at for prices to be back down at or near the neckline level after rejection off the right shoulder peak.
2. The standard ~85% of the time H&S scenario plays out where the news of the rate hike in march helps the follow through push of BTC down below the neckline to the
29K support level validating the H&S pattern to completion where it then bounces off support (I just cannot realistically see BTC dropping below 29K without a black swan event) and rises until the next rate hike, major event, etc.
All of this is purely my opinions only and NOT trading advice or financial advice of any kind. DYOR/TA/FA.
I am relatively new with crypto trading so I apologize in advance if any of my TA or reason/logic is "unconventional"...
If H&S plays out then buying anywhere in this range we are currently in (~
42K) *should be relatively sound for a long as we've already wicked the potential neckline and the most likely place to go from here is back up to form the top of the right shoulder at/near the indicated price level in the chart.Once price hits peak to form top of right shoulder naturally, a rejection is expected back down to the neckline (~
39K) where I think one of two scenarios could play out:1. A bounce off the neckline support level back up (a rare ~15% of the time invalidation of H&S where price does not drop below neckline) if the news of the first rate hike is better received (dovish based on the record high inflation rates i.e. .25% vs .5%). Not a normal reaction if following a H&S pattern up to then but the March timeframe is expected to be a volatile one for obvious reasons and it also likely coincides with the timeframe we'd be looking at for prices to be back down at or near the neckline level after rejection off the right shoulder peak.
2. The standard ~85% of the time H&S scenario plays out where the news of the rate hike in march helps the follow through push of BTC down below the neckline to the
29K support level validating the H&S pattern to completion where it then bounces off support (I just cannot realistically see BTC dropping below 29K without a black swan event) and rises until the next rate hike, major event, etc.All of this is purely my opinions only and NOT trading advice or financial advice of any kind. DYOR/TA/FA.
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