2024-07-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: We are probably in W4 of this bear trend and market is moving sideways. If the market can not pull back sharply during big sell offs, tells you all you need to know. Bears are in full control and until bulls can break above the bear trend line which is currently at 60600, bears remain in control. Market is forming multiple ascending triangles which I expect will break out to the downside tomorrow for prices below 56000 and maybe lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 53000 - 59000
bull case: Bulls want to break outside the bear trend by breaking the big trend line above 60000. The best they can currently hope for is to stay above 56000 and wait for the daily ema and trend line to come closer due to trading sideways.
Invalidation is below 53000.
bear case: Bears leaving behind big gaps on the daily chart and they want to keep it that way. Market has to stay below 58700 for that. Bears will probably need more sellers to push this further down and they wait for the daily 20ema to com closer. Last leg down started exactly at that ema.
Invalidation is above 60600.
short term: Neutral. Bounce happened again and it’s an ascending triangle which is holding nicely. Play it until clear breakout or just sell against 58000-58500
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Market held above the 1h ema all day, so buying near it was good. Also selling above 58000 continues to work.
comment: We are probably in W4 of this bear trend and market is moving sideways. If the market can not pull back sharply during big sell offs, tells you all you need to know. Bears are in full control and until bulls can break above the bear trend line which is currently at 60600, bears remain in control. Market is forming multiple ascending triangles which I expect will break out to the downside tomorrow for prices below 56000 and maybe lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 53000 - 59000
bull case: Bulls want to break outside the bear trend by breaking the big trend line above 60000. The best they can currently hope for is to stay above 56000 and wait for the daily ema and trend line to come closer due to trading sideways.
Invalidation is below 53000.
bear case: Bears leaving behind big gaps on the daily chart and they want to keep it that way. Market has to stay below 58700 for that. Bears will probably need more sellers to push this further down and they wait for the daily 20ema to com closer. Last leg down started exactly at that ema.
Invalidation is above 60600.
short term: Neutral. Bounce happened again and it’s an ascending triangle which is holding nicely. Play it until clear breakout or just sell against 58000-58500
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Market held above the 1h ema all day, so buying near it was good. Also selling above 58000 continues to work.
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