Potential Bitcoin Top based with 10 years of price data

Hello, I was looking at the long term bitcoin price chart and drew a simple curve trendline connecting the tops of each cycle. Now that there are 3 points of contact in 2011, 2014, and 2017 it's worth at least considering whether this trendline is valid. Most people are calling for around 150k to 300k top for bitcoin in this cycle. However, this trendline would say the top is in somewhere between 80k - 95k depending on how you draw it. Personally, I would be cautious with bitcoin in the coming months, if it hits the trendline, is it really worth risking a potential 80% drop just for an additional 2x if its "different this time"?

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Also consider that if most people expect bitcoin to go significantly higher in this bullrun, isn't it more likely they're wrong? In 2017 no one thought bitcoin would top under 20k, no one realized that 19.5k was a top until months later when the price fell a lot.