BTC Bullish Scenario

18. Sept. 2017

I think we are at the beginning of a new uptrend cycle in BTC . The weekly uptrend is still in place, and the daily downtrend (using bitstamp data) has expired. I will be looking for a move above ~$4190 to confirm, and am waiting to add larger margin positions (holding mainly spot right now).

Chart is based on methods learned from Tim West and Ivan Labrie.

18. Sept. 2017

Anmerkung

This downward move is reminiscent of the selloff in mid-July. Seeing a similar upward bounce would put us back over the weekly mode, from where I would feel confident entering larger margin positions.

27. Sept. 2017

Anmerkung

NEO looks phenomenal here. It's price is, as Ivan puts it, a good barometer of the Chinese crypto market sentiment. Strength in NEO here is indirectly bullish for BTC, given that the recent selloff was largely catalyzed by the China news. Now with Charlie Lee seeming to be correct (again), and rumors of Chinese exchange licenses coming out, the looming bear market may be temporarily avoided.

This aligns with the last update, showing that the recent correction was proportional to the previous correction ($1,800), after which bitcoin rallied to new highs.

30. Sept. 2017

Anmerkung

I meant to update this sooner. Bitcoin had been acting bullish and broke above the $4,190 level (I have moved this level down to $4,169 - I think it is very bullish if we hold over this price). At the very least I think we will rally to the previous high at ~$5,000.

This bounce has been progressing slower than the last, and understandably so. The last bounce and rally was catalyzed by SegWit activation and a (temporary) resolution to the scaling debate.

29. Okt. 2017

Anmerkung

Another uptrend signal triggered here. Target at ~$6920. It is possible to see a long term top in the red area ($6120 - $7195). At this price level I will look to take profits and reduce the size of my crypto account.

1. Nov. 2017

Anmerkung

I'm out of all bitcoin. My mentor, Ivan, raised many good points and ultimately convinced me to sell.

We've hit long term targets and are approaching uptrend expiration, many bears have finally given up shorting and turned bullish, and both the weekly and daily ranges are decreasing.

It is logical to wait in cash for at least 3 days.