2024-07-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls are in full control, despite a red day. Market barely going down and still 3000 points above the daily 20ema. Expecting another retest of the highs or higher highs over the next days.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 53000 - 72000
bull case: Bulls want another bull gap to stay open, which would be at 65000. Current selling is a minor pullback on the daily chart and bulls have every argument on their side to reverse again. Next targets are 70000 and the big bear trend line from the ath. Can you just buy at 66000 right now? I don’t think so. It’s a bull flag and it could go down more. I would want a break above that bull flag first.
Invalidation is below 63000.
bear case: Bears got their first decent bear bar on the daily chart but the selling was still very two sided. Bears would need to steepen the bull flag and make the 1h 20ema resistance to accelerate the selling. Bears could be happy if the bull flag channel holds longer. Their first target is to close the bull gap down to 65000. Below that would be the daily 20ema at 63700ish.
Invalidation is above 69000.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above bull flag break and bearish below 63000. Market will probably move sideways around 65000 before we get a breakout above the channel.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling the double top bar 25 (Monday) + 21 was decent for 2000+ points. Your signal bar would have been 21 because it was a double top with Monday and bar 20 was a very strong bull bar but 21 was such a bad follow through, that if bar 22 is a bear bar again, it’s a decent sell.
comment: Bulls are in full control, despite a red day. Market barely going down and still 3000 points above the daily 20ema. Expecting another retest of the highs or higher highs over the next days.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 53000 - 72000
bull case: Bulls want another bull gap to stay open, which would be at 65000. Current selling is a minor pullback on the daily chart and bulls have every argument on their side to reverse again. Next targets are 70000 and the big bear trend line from the ath. Can you just buy at 66000 right now? I don’t think so. It’s a bull flag and it could go down more. I would want a break above that bull flag first.
Invalidation is below 63000.
bear case: Bears got their first decent bear bar on the daily chart but the selling was still very two sided. Bears would need to steepen the bull flag and make the 1h 20ema resistance to accelerate the selling. Bears could be happy if the bull flag channel holds longer. Their first target is to close the bull gap down to 65000. Below that would be the daily 20ema at 63700ish.
Invalidation is above 69000.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above bull flag break and bearish below 63000. Market will probably move sideways around 65000 before we get a breakout above the channel.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling the double top bar 25 (Monday) + 21 was decent for 2000+ points. Your signal bar would have been 21 because it was a double top with Monday and bar 20 was a very strong bull bar but 21 was such a bad follow through, that if bar 22 is a bear bar again, it’s a decent sell.
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