I thought BTC would go a bit higher before a correction, but "this cool off is taking longer than expected" got me thinking, as well as people telling how wrong I was to be bearish in March 2020, days before the BTC market capitulated because months later price went up (fun fact: just before BTC crashed 60% some people made fun of me for being wrong because BTCUSD went up 5%, you're always right when you choose your timeframe in hindsight).
From the charts I am comparing I think it is quite obvious what my timeframe is. Maybe timeframe is not the correct word because it could take 5 days like it could take 2 months.
This kind of price action does not appear for the first time, here is an example of it taking 2 months.
The celebrating and media attention is not at its peak, it could either be that this is just a small "bear market" in the trend up, like April 2013 was - not that I think BTCUSD drops 80% now.
Also, the (long idea)/(short idea) ratio indicator is extremely overbought, when BTC was at 11k no one cared, now everyone is in and bullish, this does not bode well.
I am also long ETH, back in Dec 2017 & Jan 2018 Bitcoin going down ended up harming the ETH uptrend but long after the BTC downmove was started, obvious, and it did not prevent it from going to ath, and on top of that ETH made 2 double tops to really give bulls time to think and adjust their portfolio.
If this BTC downtrend happens, could be fast, us longs ETH might want to trail a stop on BTC short, maybe sell some ETH if it stops going up, and reload lower.
There is a case for BTCUSD going up "Possibly the last confirmation before 50k", right now I am not feeling it.
Might go higher, from experience and instinct I am not feeling it. Looks more like complacency and the price will drop soon.
The hard part is guessing where it bottoms (zero obviously), I'd say somewhere between 35 and 45% from the high.
The area to considering closing that short and buy in $ numbers is not that wide, roughly 25 to 30k.
Depending on what happens we might have to close our short higher, but I don't think I'd buy before the price reaches that area.
From the charts I am comparing I think it is quite obvious what my timeframe is. Maybe timeframe is not the correct word because it could take 5 days like it could take 2 months.
This kind of price action does not appear for the first time, here is an example of it taking 2 months.
The celebrating and media attention is not at its peak, it could either be that this is just a small "bear market" in the trend up, like April 2013 was - not that I think BTCUSD drops 80% now.
Also, the (long idea)/(short idea) ratio indicator is extremely overbought, when BTC was at 11k no one cared, now everyone is in and bullish, this does not bode well.
I am also long ETH, back in Dec 2017 & Jan 2018 Bitcoin going down ended up harming the ETH uptrend but long after the BTC downmove was started, obvious, and it did not prevent it from going to ath, and on top of that ETH made 2 double tops to really give bulls time to think and adjust their portfolio.
If this BTC downtrend happens, could be fast, us longs ETH might want to trail a stop on BTC short, maybe sell some ETH if it stops going up, and reload lower.
There is a case for BTCUSD going up "Possibly the last confirmation before 50k", right now I am not feeling it.
Might go higher, from experience and instinct I am not feeling it. Looks more like complacency and the price will drop soon.
The hard part is guessing where it bottoms (zero obviously), I'd say somewhere between 35 and 45% from the high.
The area to considering closing that short and buy in $ numbers is not that wide, roughly 25 to 30k.
Depending on what happens we might have to close our short higher, but I don't think I'd buy before the price reaches that area.
Trade ist aktiv
Kommentar:
I can only imagine the average IQ in my comments right now 😁
Check this idea:
I kid you not this happened:
The only time this pattern did not work out was in november & december 2017 ;)
For the noobs raging in my comments and not wanting a correction: actually nevermind I won't lower myself to explain something this obvious.
Check this idea:
I kid you not this happened:
The only time this pattern did not work out was in november & december 2017 ;)
For the noobs raging in my comments and not wanting a correction: actually nevermind I won't lower myself to explain something this obvious.
Kommentar:
Kraken is permanently down but binance is working.
As usual, we don't wait for the round number
I'm selling a bit right under 50000 with a limit order, and I'll sell some manually if price consolidates.
If the price continues up past 50000 might be time to hop on the train as it goes parabolic, and it would mean the top is close so not a good time to hold bags.
If the price drops I consider this a normal correction-pullback until new order, and buy and hold idk 25k to 35k I guess, as long as it does not reverses, the next resistance being 100k and next extension res 200k.
As usual, we don't wait for the round number
I'm selling a bit right under 50000 with a limit order, and I'll sell some manually if price consolidates.
If the price continues up past 50000 might be time to hop on the train as it goes parabolic, and it would mean the top is close so not a good time to hold bags.
If the price drops I consider this a normal correction-pullback until new order, and buy and hold idk 25k to 35k I guess, as long as it does not reverses, the next resistance being 100k and next extension res 200k.
The criminal ran exchanges probably pile in as soon as they detect big buying volume, there's no regulation, the clients are suckers, nothing stops them from doing so, Wall Street GME trading freeze (if it was malicious) is really nothing, this happens on a daily with ponzi coins.
If the price consolidates and the criminal institutions graciously allow you to do so, now is a good short with a moderately tight stop.
As to ETHBTC, no big surprise
Can't have price action rules it's only allowed to have blind limit orders, preferably DCA buy & hold to the slaughterhouse.
I wish it just sideways, or crashes to zero, so I don't have to waste my time with frozen exchanges just because crypto is easy money. I'd rather not make money.