BTCUSD Weekly Analysis | 2018-2020

8. Mai 2018

My chart overlays got deleted, so I decided to start from scratch, which wasn't bad at all after all, since many charts were pretty chaotic (from what others have commented :-)).

Since the big picture is easily overlooked when we look at the smaller timeframes (tunnelvision), it's important to see the overall trend since start to now from time to time to not get biased in one direction or the other.

Assuming this is the 3rd wave since 2011, the king has one more serious bullrun to go before a big correction, but first a cyclical lesser degree correction is due before I see that happen.
For the last few years, I've seen (and still see) the 618 (golden ratio) has been a more and more significant nummer for Bitcoin (sic BTC), so my guess for wave 5 takes this number in to consideration, as w5 equals w1 doesn't seem right when it's calculated from w4, because it would be a truncated one at a much lower price point, which I find hard to believe.

8. Mai 2018

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As a reminder and in my honest opinion which I'm 99.99% sure about, 6k is NOT the bottom my friends. Those who tell you that have never experienced 2/3 digits price and so far all who've said this came late in 2017 or early 2018 and are very emotional when you tell them this, which says enough.

Technically, there is a possibility for 13.8k in this reactive bullrun, but as you can see and as predicted, it's losing steam over time, so the possibility becomes stronger that 9.9k was the top for this bullrun IF we break 8.85k.
As of now, there is a possibility of 10.8k, but NOT more than 11.7k.

I still expect 3.3k and this would be a confluence zone of measured move 20k -> 6k + 11.7k -> 6.45k.

From an observant + psychological point of view:
- Majority of people (to be named people hereafter) have NOT been shaken out yet. Too many longs still open and too many bagholders not capitulated;
- People immediately become bullish after a pullback from a sharp move down. In a true bullrun, people are skeptical until they're too late to step in again after a very, very long time of depression (1 month is nothing compared to 3 prior years);
- People feel too comfortable and euphoric for weeks now that this was the bottom and talking about 16k, 18k, 20k, 50k again.

I'm not telling you what to do. There still is money to be made or breakeven when you're underwater, but keep in mind there is more to lose.

8. Mai 2018

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^ Forgot to add chart

8. Mai 2018

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Technically, it can to 1.9k without breaking the EW rules (wave 4), which is a deep correction. I don't expect it, but it happened before in Nasdaq in the dot com bubble. See chart.

31. Mai 2018

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31. Mai 2018

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Alternative

31. Mai 2018

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The puppet master mark up and mark down chessboard play

2. Juni 2018

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Bullish bat targets 2.1k as endpoint.

7. Juni 2018

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My call 7.65k @ 7 June 2018, based on chart alone (no FA): First newer low (< 6k), then 31.8k EOY '19 / SOY '20 (+- 2 months). There is a condition: if time lapse does not become slower than '14, which it seems it does for last two months, unfortunately. If so, extend eta (start of '18 until end of '19) x 1.5 up to 1.75.

14. Juni 2018

Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht

Perfect hit, first target reached, like clockwork time + price

14. Juni 2018

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18. Juni 2018

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This idea becomes invalidated once the bottom is set, which I believe. It's of course too early to tell, in hindsight everything is piece of cake, but reversal signs are already here.

Breaking 5.925k signifies market failure, leading to 4.8-5.2, then 3-3.3, then 1.8-2k, then 1.3k, then 3 digits, which I find hard to believe, considering both and TA.

From TA point of view, triple bottom pattern is set, lower low is made finishing the corrective structure, retrace 50% to 13k end of year is within reasonable to make higher lows afterwards is now expected.

20. Nov. 2018

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So you wanted to buy cheaper price? Maybe don't chicken now like you did at 6k and look for buys. At the moment ~4.2k.

20. Mai 2019

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Thanks Wlad for reminding this chart again :) But not feeling it will go to 33k at all anymore. Can still pump with manipulation, but this bet doesn't make sense. I would cash out and not come back for a few years before the last 90% tries to get out and notice there is no fiat in the bank at all (fractional reserve exchanges with inflated fake dollars). No financial advice.