PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 16 Mar 2023 Expiry
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BANKNIFTY showed some strength today, mostly signs of a pause after a breakdown over the last sessions.
We opened at 39061 pretty much inline with yesterday's close and quickly started falling to the support zone of 38690. The price action was perfectly aligned with how we traded yesterday, see the highlighted section in cyan color.
The reversal appeared at 10.05, but at 09.54 i posted on banknifty minds that "BANKNIFTY you wont believe but for further selling to continue we need a pull back at 38690 level
otherwise the selling momentum will die out soon"
The pull back at 10.05 lasted till 11.05 claiming back 1.69% ~ 650pts. This was much more than a pull back, infact we went back into green territory.
At 11.03 i posted this in bank nifty minds "BANKNIFTY now if the bearish momentum is intact we shouldnt cross the recent swing low on the upside"
The logic being the swing low of yesterday's session would form an interim resistance or a zone where the short sellers may abandon their position at no loss. This prediction also magically came true today.
We fell 1.27% ~ 498pts from the first HOD formed. And the bottom was formed at near the support level.
What happened from 12.35 to 14.25 was something not in my expectations. I couldnt really believe the strengthBANKNIFTY showed to gain 1.59% ~ 617pts. I was looking at the charts of 
HDFCBANK , 
SBIN and 
ICICIBANK and could not really correlate the factors that aided in the rise.
I was hoping that the support level of 38690 will be broken today, i had 2 put debit spreads that went to zero because of my wrong assumptions.
38400/38300 PE at around 12.00 and then naked PE buy of 39000 by 14.45. The weekly expiry would have led to some legitimate price manipulations but the show of strength by banks was not something i expected even by the fundamentals.
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15mts chart shows 2 contradicting chart patterns
1. Double bottom (W pattern) formed at support zone
2. Lower low, lower high formation when the chart from 13th also included.
---
1hr TF is still bearish, the support may not have broken today. MaybeBANKNIFTY needs to catch some breath before the next move !
To view all 8 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
BANKNIFTY showed some strength today, mostly signs of a pause after a breakdown over the last sessions.We opened at 39061 pretty much inline with yesterday's close and quickly started falling to the support zone of 38690. The price action was perfectly aligned with how we traded yesterday, see the highlighted section in cyan color.
The reversal appeared at 10.05, but at 09.54 i posted on banknifty minds that "
BANKNIFTY you wont believe but for further selling to continue we need a pull back at 38690 levelotherwise the selling momentum will die out soon"
The pull back at 10.05 lasted till 11.05 claiming back 1.69% ~ 650pts. This was much more than a pull back, infact we went back into green territory.
At 11.03 i posted this in bank nifty minds "
BANKNIFTY now if the bearish momentum is intact we shouldnt cross the recent swing low on the upside"The logic being the swing low of yesterday's session would form an interim resistance or a zone where the short sellers may abandon their position at no loss. This prediction also magically came true today.
We fell 1.27% ~ 498pts from the first HOD formed. And the bottom was formed at near the support level.
What happened from 12.35 to 14.25 was something not in my expectations. I couldnt really believe the strength
BANKNIFTY showed to gain 1.59% ~ 617pts. I was looking at the charts of HDFCBANK , SBIN and ICICIBANK and could not really correlate the factors that aided in the rise.I was hoping that the support level of 38690 will be broken today, i had 2 put debit spreads that went to zero because of my wrong assumptions.
38400/38300 PE at around 12.00 and then naked PE buy of 39000 by 14.45. The weekly expiry would have led to some legitimate price manipulations but the show of strength by banks was not something i expected even by the fundamentals.
---
15mts chart shows 2 contradicting chart patterns
1. Double bottom (W pattern) formed at support zone
2. Lower low, lower high formation when the chart from 13th also included.
---
1hr TF is still bearish, the support may not have broken today. Maybe
BANKNIFTY needs to catch some breath before the next move !To view all 8 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
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