AR / TetherUSLong
Possibility of Correction with “Double Zigzag” or “Zigzag”?!
AR is a pair that I personally enjoy trading. It has rarely disappointed me in the analyses I’ve done so far. Since my last post, I had completely eliminated my risks. Ultimately, I was able to achieve the movements I desired. Given the current state of the structure, I have two prominent scenarios.
Primary scenario (orange): The possibility that the correction might take the form of a WXY, i.e., a “Double Zigzag.” There are certain factors that make this scenario more likely than the alternative. For example, the $16.29 level marked by the orange horizontal ray on the chart is the exact point where the w:y waves overlap 1:1. The almost 35-40% reaction we received from that level gives me signals that this scenario is more likely. When I analyze the reaction we received on lower time frames, I can see very clear impulse waves. Although I can see an impulsive structure in the lower time frame, the key level where we will get confirmation to say that the decline has ended with the WXY scenario is $28.55. If we reach this level without making a new low and even just touch it, I will rule out the alternative count.
Secondary scenario (white): The possibility that the correction will end in an ABC form, i.e., with a “Zigzag.” I have shown the placements with white arrows on the chart. Wave A is progressing in a 5-wave structure. Then we have our intermediate wave B, followed by the C wave, which we also expect to be in a 5-wave structure. In this scenario, there is still one final leg of the C wave that remains incomplete. I depicted how this could be completed with the white path. If this scenario becomes active, I anticipate that the C wave might end at the $14.03 level, which is the 1:1 ratio of the a:c waves. If the previous low is violated, even if only by a wick, this scenario will become active. Another reason why I consider this scenario weaker is that the wave I marked as “alt b” has shown a very impulsive move. It seems more reasonable to mark this as the C leg of an “Expanded Flat” X wave.
At the end of both scenarios, I will be expecting new highs in this pair. I update my targets by analyzing the chart step by step, according to the state of my count. I hope that as the movements mature, we will be able to take steps with clearer ideas.
Primary scenario (orange): The possibility that the correction might take the form of a WXY, i.e., a “Double Zigzag.” There are certain factors that make this scenario more likely than the alternative. For example, the $16.29 level marked by the orange horizontal ray on the chart is the exact point where the w:y waves overlap 1:1. The almost 35-40% reaction we received from that level gives me signals that this scenario is more likely. When I analyze the reaction we received on lower time frames, I can see very clear impulse waves. Although I can see an impulsive structure in the lower time frame, the key level where we will get confirmation to say that the decline has ended with the WXY scenario is $28.55. If we reach this level without making a new low and even just touch it, I will rule out the alternative count.
Secondary scenario (white): The possibility that the correction will end in an ABC form, i.e., with a “Zigzag.” I have shown the placements with white arrows on the chart. Wave A is progressing in a 5-wave structure. Then we have our intermediate wave B, followed by the C wave, which we also expect to be in a 5-wave structure. In this scenario, there is still one final leg of the C wave that remains incomplete. I depicted how this could be completed with the white path. If this scenario becomes active, I anticipate that the C wave might end at the $14.03 level, which is the 1:1 ratio of the a:c waves. If the previous low is violated, even if only by a wick, this scenario will become active. Another reason why I consider this scenario weaker is that the wave I marked as “alt b” has shown a very impulsive move. It seems more reasonable to mark this as the C leg of an “Expanded Flat” X wave.
At the end of both scenarios, I will be expecting new highs in this pair. I update my targets by analyzing the chart step by step, according to the state of my count. I hope that as the movements mature, we will be able to take steps with clearer ideas.
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