Mean Reversion Strategy v2 [KL]Description :
This strategy will enter a position when the following conditions are met:
a) Main signal: When source data (ATR) diverts from its moving average value, and
b) Confirmation: If predicted direction of trend is favorable.
Assumptions :
During periods of high price volatility, ATR diverts from its moving average value. Eventually, ATR should revert. But since just knowing the magnitude of increase/decrease of ATR does not indicate a trend signal, we need to introduce a model to predict the current trend.
In short:
• Trend Prediction : This strategy calculates the expected logarithmic return of the security (the "Drift") and considers prices to be moving in uptrend if the drift curve is upward sloping.
• Assessment of ATR diversion : To determine "yes/no" regarding whether ATR at a given point in time has diverted, this script conducts a two-tailed hypothesis test at each candlestick period. The null hypothesis (H0) is that the fast moving average value should equal the slow moving average value (say, denoted as H0: atr14 == atr28; it is assumed that atr28 is more meaningful for the purpose of describing the current trend because it has a larger sample size). Investopedia has an article summarizing this topic .
Exit Condition :
When trailing stop loss hits.
Previous version :
This strategy is based on Version 1 published back in September . This older version considers +/- one standard deviation to be the critical values relative to average ATR when testing whether ATR has diverted from the mean. This does not take Standard Error ("SE") into account. As a result, the threshold is often too wide and it generates too many entry signals.
Meanreversion
[KL] Mean Reversion (ATR) StrategyThis strategy will enter into a position when price volatility is relative high, betting that price will subsequently trend in a favourable direction.
Hypothesis : During periods of high price volatility, ATR will divert from its moving average by at least +/- one standard deviation. Eventually, ATR will revert back to the mean. However, just knowing the magnitude of increase/decrease of ATR does not give a trend signal, so we need to introduce a model in this script to predict whether the next bars will be up/down.
Trend Prediction : This strategy calculates the expected logarithmic return of the security (the "Drift") and considers prices to be moving in uptrend if the drift curve is upward sloping or if the drift value is positive.
Entry Conditions : Long position is entered when:
(a) ATR has diverted from mean by one standard deviation, and
(b) trend is predicted to move in our favor.
Exit Condition : When trailing stop loss is hit.
Results from backtesting against VOO (1H timeframe):
- approx 46% win rate over 491 trades, on average holding for 20 hours per trade
- price at the beginning of backtest (Jan. 2015) was $187.52, giving holding period return of ~120% had we not sold in between ("HPR of HODL'ing")
- this strategy gained ~159%, exceeding ~120% HPR of HODL'ing
HYE Combo Market [Strategy] (Vwap Mean Reversion + Trend Hunter)In this strategy, I used a combination of trend hunter and vwap mean reversion strategies that I published before.
Trend Hunter Strategy:
Mean Reversion Vwap Strategy:
The results are quite impressive, especially for bitcoin.
While the hodl return for bitcoin was 13419%, the strategy's return in the same period was about 5 times (65000%) of this.
s3.tradingview.com
In this combo strategy, I made some changes to the original settings of the strategies used together and added some more new features.
Trend Hunter Strategy Settings: (Original / Combo)
- Slow Tenkansen Period : 9 / 9
- Slow Kijunsen Period : 26 / 13
- Fast Tenkansen Period : 5 / 3
- Fast Kijunsen Period : 13 / 7
- BB Length : 20 / 20
- BB Stdev : 2 / 2
- TSV Length : 13 / 20
- TSV Ema Length : 7 / 7
* I also added a "vidya moving average" to be used as a confirmation tool to open a long position. (Candle close must be above the vidya line.)
Vwap Mean Reversion Strategy Settings: (Original / Combo)
- Small Vwap : 2 / 8
- Big Vwap : 5 / 10
- Percent Below to Buy : 3 / 2
- RSI Period : 2 / 2
- RSI Ema Period : 5 / 5
- Maximum RSI Level for Buy : 30
* I also added a "mean vwap line" to be used for exits in this part of the strategy. In the original version, when small vwap crossovers big vwap, we close the position, but in this strategy we will wait for the close above the mean vwap.
TIPS AND WARNINGS
1-) The standard settings of this combo strategy is designed and tested with daily timeframe. For lower timeframes, you should change the strategy settings and find the best value for yourself.
2-) Only the mean vwap line is displayed on the graph. For a detailed view, you can delete the "//" marks from the plot codes in the strategy code.
3-) This is a strategy for educational and experimental purposes. It cannot be considered as investment advice. You should be careful and make your own risk assessment when opening real market trades using this strategy.
________________________________________________________
Bu stratejide, daha önce yayınladığım trend avcısı ve vwap ortalamaya geri dönüş stratejilerinin bir kombinasyonunu kullandım.
Sonuçlar özellikle bitcoin için oldukça etkileyici.
Bitcoin için hodl getirisi %13419 iken, stratejinin aynı dönemdeki getirisi bunun yaklaşık 5 katı (%65000) idi.
Bu kombo stratejide, birlikte kullanılan stratejilerin orijinal ayarlarında bazı değişiklikler yaptım ve bazı yeni özellikler ekledim.
Trend Avcısı Strateji Ayarları: (Orijinal / Combo)
- Yavaş Tenkansen Periyodu : 9 / 9
- Yavaş Kijunsen Periyodu : 26 / 13
- Hızlı Tenkansen Periyodu : 5 / 3
- Hızlı Kijunsen Periyodu : 13 / 7
- BB Uzunluğu : 20 / 20
- BB Standart Sapması : 2 / 2
- TSV Uzunluğu : 13 / 20
- TSV Ema Uzunluğu : 7 / 7
* Ayrıca long pozisyon açmak için onay aracı olarak kullanılmak üzere "vidya hareketli ortalama" ekledim. (Mum kapanışı vidya çizgisinin üzerinde olmalıdır.)
Vwap Ortalamaya Dönüş Stratejisi Ayarları: (Orijinal / Combo)
- Küçük Vwap : 2 / 8
- Büyük Vwap : 5 / 10
- Alış İçin Gerekli Fark Oranı : 3 / 2
- RSI Periyodu : 2 / 2
- RSI Ema Periyodu: 5 / 5
- Alış için gerekli maksimum RSI seviyesi : 30
* Stratejinin bu bölümünde pozisyondan çıkışlar için kullanılacak bir "ortalama vwap çizgisi" de ekledim. Orijinal versiyonda, küçük vwap, büyük vwap'ı yukarı kestiğinde pozisyonu kapatıyoruz, ancak bu stratejide, ortalama vwap'ın üzerindeki kapanışı bekleyeceğiz.
İPUÇLARI VE UYARILAR
1-) Bu birleşik stratejinin standart ayarları, günlük zaman dilimi ile tasarlanmış ve test edilmiştir. Daha düşük zaman dilimleri için strateji ayarlarını değiştirmeli ve kendiniz için en iyi değeri bulmalısınız.
2-) Grafikte sadece ortalama vwap çizgisi görüntülenir. Ayrıntılı bir görünüm için strateji kodundaki "plot" ile başlayan satırlarda grafikte görünmesini istediğiniz özelliğin önündeki "//" işaretlerini silebilirsiniz.
3-) Eğitim ve deneysel amaçlı bir stratejidir. Yatırım tavsiyesi olarak değerlendirilemez. Bu stratejiyi kullanarak gerçek piyasa işlem açarken dikkatli olmalı ve kendi risk değerlendirmenizi yapmalısınız.
dirt cheap yet elegant RSI StrategyFor Educational Purposes. Results can differ on different markets and can fail at any time. Profit is not guaranteed.
This only works in a few markets and in certain situations. Changing the settings can give better or worse results for other markets. This is a good way to show off a good looking strategy, atleast in paper, with minimal effort involved in the making and usage. It can be made with the most minimal lines of code if needed to bring shame unto others. It only works in a few markets and who knows if it will actually rebound from the overbought or oversold levels but in case it doesn't I put in a time-based stop to exit in case of that worst case scenario. There's not much to it, good for trolling others, or serious business, you decide.
Bollinger Bands Strategy with Intraday Intensity IndexFor Educational Purposes. Results can differ on different markets and can fail at any time. Profit is not guaranteed.
This only works in a few markets and in certain situations. Changing the settings can give better or worse results for other markets.
This is a mean reversion strategy based on Bollinger Bands and the Intraday Intensity Index (a volume indicator). John Bollinger mentions that the Intraday Intensity Index can be used with Bollinger Bands and is one of the top indicators he recommends in his book. It seems he prefers it over the other volume indicators that he compares to for some reason. III looks a lot like Chaikin Money Flow but without the denominator in that calculation. On the default settings of the BBs, the III helps give off better entry signals. John Bollinger however is vague on how to use the BBs and it's hard to say if one should enter when it is below/above the bands or when the price crosses them. I find that with many indicators and strategies it's best to wait for a confirmation of some sort, in this case by waiting for some crossover of a band. Like most mean reversion strategies, the exit is very loose if using BBs alone. Usually the plan to exit is when the price finally reverts back to the mean or in this case the middle band. This can potentially lead to huge drawdowns and/or losses. Mean reversion strategies can have high win/loss ratios but can still end up unprofitable because of the huge losses that can occur. These drawdowns/losses that mean reversion strategies suffer from can potentially eat away at a large chunk of all that was previously made or perhaps up to all of it in the worst cases, can occur weeks or perhaps up to months after being profitable trading such a strategy, and will take a while and several trades to make it all back or keep a profitable track record. It is important to have a stop loss, trailing stop, or some sort of stop plan with these types of strategies. For this one, in addition to exiting the trade when price reverts to the middle band, I included a time-based stop plan that exits with a gain or with a loss to avoid potentially large losses, and to exit after only a few periods after taking the trade if in profit instead of waiting for the price to revert back to the mean.
GMS: Mean Reversion StrategyThis is based on my GMS: Mean Reversion Indicator ()
Features:
- % Based Profit Target and Stop Loss
- SMA Trend Filter
- Can choose trade exit based off a moving average or linear regression curve
- Filter for long only trades, short only trades, or both at the same time.
Source code is open, so feel free to take a look!
I hope it helps,
Andre
Trend Following or Mean RevertingThe strategy checks nature of the instruments. It Buys if the close is greater than yesterday's high, reverse the position if the close is lower than yesterday's low and repeat the process.
1. If it is trend following then the equity curve will be in uptrend
2. If it is mean reverting then the equity curve will be downtrend
Thanks to Rayner Teo.
Mean Reversion Strategy by KrisWatersThis is a type of mean reversion strategy. It only generates long signals when the price is far away from the mean. It tries buy from the dip. Use it with BTC/USDT pair on 4 hour timeframe.
Bollinger Band Strategy (Basic) Version 1 This strategy is for learning purposes only. Pay special attention to these strategies on longer aggregation periods (like 1 hr chart or more). Don't expect accurate results when you set a limit to 10 cents above your entry to be accurate. For example if you set the chart to 1 day, the price may move down and hit a stop 10 times then tag your limit. If this doesn't make sense, just don't use strategies here. Learn more first. That being said, I don't have specific recommendations for each aggregation period, backtesting isn't always perfect.
Now then, this strategy can be used as the traditional BB method by setting the "Stop" and "Limit Out" to like 10000, check "Reversal Entry" and uncheck "Limit Time of Day" This will keep the strategy running just reverse your position when price crosses outside each band.
INPUTS:
Length - length of WMA that I used for mean of Bollinger Band (this may suppose to be SMA, too bad)
Source - O-H-L-C basis for WMA
Deviation - normal Standard deviation that would be set when using Bollinger Band
Trailing stop check box - your stop value will be either a hard stop or trailing stop for an exit
Stop - the stop value - remember you can set this really high and it won't stop out
Limit Out - the limit value for exit
Reversal Entry check box - This changes each entry from a reversal (traditional idea of BB) to enter a trend trade - hopefully version 2 will have choice to trend one direction and reversal in the other.
Limit Time of Day - Especially when trading futures, you may want to only trade a specific time of day, when this box is checked, you can set the entry times below, exit will still only occur based on limit/stop or a flip entry order (the opposite entry condition is met)
Tips:
when I don't know a thing about a price range, like gold. I can set the limit out to 10000 and play with a trailing stop to get a better idea of what is even possible before tuning further.
Mean-Reversion Swing Trading Strategy v1A port of the TradeStation EasyLanguage code for a mean-revision strategy described at
traders.com
"In “Mean-Reversion Swing Trading,” which appeared in the December 2016 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, author Ken Calhoun
describes a trading methodology where the trader attempts to enter an existing trend after there has been a pullback.
He suggests looking for 50% pullbacks in strong trends and waiting for price to move back in the direction of the trend
before entering the trade."
See Also:
- 9 Mistakes Quants Make that Cause Backtests to Lie (blog.quantopian.com)
- When Backtests Meet Reality (financial-hacker.com)
- Why MT4 backtesting does not work (www.stevehopwoodforex.com)
Forex Master v4.0 (EUR/USD Mean-Reversion Algorithm)DESCRIPTION
Forex Master v4.0 is a mean-reversion algorithm currently optimized for trading the EUR/USD pair on the 5M chart interval. All indicator inputs use the period's closing price and all trades are executed at the open of the period following the period where the trade signal was generated.
There are 3 main components that make up Forex Master v4.0:
I. Trend Filter
The algorithm uses a version of the ADX indicator as a trend filter to trade only in certain time periods where price is more likely to be range-bound (i.e., mean-reverting). This indicator is composed of a Fast ADX and a Slow ADX, both using the same look-back period of 50. However, the Fast ADX is smoothed with a 6-period EMA and the Slow ADX is smoothed with a 12-period EMA. When the Fast ADX is above the Slow ADX, the algorithm does not trade because this indicates that price is likelier to trend, which is bad for a mean-reversion system. Conversely, when the Fast ADX is below the Slow ADX, price is likelier to be ranging so this is the only time when the algorithm is allowed to trade.
II. Bollinger Bands
When allowed to trade by the Trend Filter, the algorithm uses the Bollinger Bands indicator to enter long and short positions. The Bolliger Bands indicator has a look-back period of 20 and a standard deviation of 1.5 for both upper and lower bands. When price crosses over the lower band, a Long Signal is generated and a long position is entered. When price crosses under the upper band, a Short Signal is generated and a short position is entered.
III. Money Management
Rule 1 - Each trade will use a limit order for a fixed quantity of 50,000 contracts (0.50 lot). The only exception is Rule
Rule 2 - Order pyramiding is enabled and up to 10 consecutive orders of the same signal can be executed (for example: 14 consecutive Long Signals are generated over 8 hours and the algorithm sends in 10 different buy orders at various prices for a total of 350,000 contracts).
Rule 3 - Every order will include a bracket with both TP and SL set at 50 pips (note: the algorithm only closes the current open position and does not enter the opposite trade once a TP or SL has been hit).
Rule 4 - When a new opposite trade signal is generated, the algorithm sends in a larger order to close the current open position as well as open a new one (for example: 14 consecutive Long Signals are generated over 8 hours and the algorithm sends in 10 different buy orders at various prices for a total of 350,000 contracts. A Short Signal is generated shortly after the 14th Long Signal. The algorithm then sends in a sell order for 400,000 contracts to close the 350,000 contracts long position and open a new short position of 50,000 contracts).
