Hybrid Triple Exponential Smoothing🙏🏻 TV, I present you HTES aka Hybrid Triple Exponential Smoothing, designed by Holt & Winters in the US, assembled by me in Saint P. I apply exponential smoothing individually to the data itself, then to residuals from the fitted values, and lastly to one-point forecast (OPF) errors, hence 'hybrid'. At the same time, the method is a closed-form solution and purely online, no need to make any recalculations & optimize anything, so the method is O(1).
^^ historical OPFs and one-point forecasting interval plotted instead of fitted values and prediction interval
Before the How-to, first let me tell you some non-obvious things about Triple Exponential smoothing (and about Exponential Smoothing in general) that not many catch. Expo smoothing seems very straightforward and obvious, but if you look deeper...
1) The whole point of exponential smoothing is its incremental/online nature, and its O(1) algorithm complexity, making it dope for high-frequency streaming data that is also univariate and has no weights. Consequently:
- Any hybrid models that involve expo smoothing and any type of ML models like gradient boosting applied to residuals rarely make much sense business-wise: if you have resources to boost the residuals, you prolly have resources to use something instead of expo smoothing;
- It also concerns the fashion of using optimizers to pick smoothing parameters; honestly, if you use this approach, you have to retrain on each datapoint, which is crazy in a streaming context. If you're not in a streaming context, why expo smoothing? What makes more sense is either picking smoothing parameters once, guided by exogenous info, or using dynamic ones calculated in a minimalistic and elegant way (more on that in further drops).
2) No matter how 'right' you choose the smoothing parameters, all the resulting components (level, trend, seasonal) are not pure; each of them contains a bit of info from the other components, this is just how non-sequential expo smoothing works. You gotta know this if you wanna use expo smoothing to decompose your time series into separate components. The only pure component there, lol, is the residuals;
3) Given what I've just said, treating the level (that does contain trend and seasonal components partially) as the resulting fit is a mistake. The resulting fit is level (l) + trend (b) + seasonal (s). And from this fit, you calculate residuals;
4) The residuals component is not some kind of bad thing; it is simply the component that contains info you consciously decide not to include in your model for whatever reason;
5) Forecasting Errors and Residuals from fitted values are 2 different things. The former are deltas between the forecasts you've made and actual values you've observed, the latter are simply differences between actual datapoints and in-sample fitted values;
6) Residuals are used for in-sample prediction intervals, errors for out-of-sample forecasting intervals;
7) Choosing between single, double, or triple expo smoothing should not be based exclusively on the nature of your data, but on what you need to do as well. For example:
- If you have trending seasonal data and you wanna do forecasting exclusively within the expo smoothing framework, then yes, you need Triple Exponential Smoothing;
- If you wanna use prediction intervals for generating trend-trading signals and you disregard seasonality, then you need single (simple) expo smoothing, even on trending data. Otherwise, the trend component will be included in your model's fitted values → prediction intervals.
8) Kind of not non-obvious, but when you put one smoothing parameter to zero, you basically disregard this component. E.g., in triple expo smoothing, when you put gamma and beta to zero, you basically end up with single exponential smoothing.
^^ data smoothing, beta and gamma zeroed out, forecasting steps = 0
About the implementation
* I use a simple power transform that results in a log transform with lambda = 0 instead of the mainstream-used transformers (if you put lambda on 2 in Box-Cox, you won't get a power of 2 transform)
* Separate set of smoothing parameters for data, residuals, and errors smoothing
* Separate band multipliers for residuals and errors
* Both typical error and typical residuals get multiplied by math.sqrt(math.pi / 2) in order to approach standard deviation so you can ~use Z values and get more or less corresponding probabilities
* In script settings → style, you can switch on/off plotting of many things that get calculated internally:
- You can visualize separate components (just remember they are not pure);
- You can switch off fit and switch on OPF plotting;
- You can plot residuals and their exponentially smoothed typical value to pick the smoothing parameters for both data and residuals;
- Or you might plot errors and play with data smoothing parameters to minimize them (consult SAE aka Sum of Absolute Errors plot);
^^ nuff said
More ideas on how to use the thing
1) Use Double Exponential Smoothing (data gamma = 0) to detrend your time series for further processing (Fourier likes at least weakly stationary data);
2) Put single expo smoothing on your strategy/subaccount equity chart (data alpha = data beta = 0), set prediction interval deviation multiplier to 1, run your strat live on simulator, start executing on real market when equity on simulator hits upper deviation (prediction interval), stop trading if equity hits lower deviation on simulator. Basically, let the strat always run on simulator, but send real orders to a real market when the strat is successful on your simulator;
3) Set up the model to minimize one-point forecasting errors, put error forecasting steps to 1, now you're doing nowcasting;
4) Forecast noisy trending sine waves for fun.
^^ nuff said 2
All Good TV ∞
Double
Dinapoli Thrust Scanner Multi MarketThis is the Multi-Market version of the Dinapoli Thrust Scanner. This indicator is able to scan up to 12 markets in 3 time frames simultaneously.
This tool is an aid to the trader and shouldn't be used in automated trading. As any Dinapoli trader would know, the Thrust pattern recognition requires visual approval from the trader.
The Thrust Scanner can display the following information onscreen:
A Multi-Timeframe Table that colors to indicate Recent/Current Thrusts. Green color signals a potential Up Thrusts, whilst red color signals a potential Down Thrust.
The DMA crosses get signaled with custom colors.
The Thrust Scanner has a Sensitivity Control which allows the trader to customize the accuracy of the scanner:
The stricter the setting, the lesser the number of potential Thrust that qualify, and therefore the more accurate the Thrust detection.
The looser the setting, the more number of potential Thrust being detected, but also the more Look Alikes (LaL) or false positives there will be.
Note: The scanner is resource hungry, and sometimes it might need some seconds to fully display the data.
Double Top/Bottom [Early]Early Double Top & Bottoms
This script will scan pivot highs/lows as well as the macro highs/lows to determine whether it thinks there could be a potential double top or double bottom.
This does not mean there definitely will be but the indicator from this point will display the proposed pattern and set out a box where you could look for reversal signals.
The simple premise is rather than having to wait like most pattern scripts this will identify the pattern much sooner and set you up so you can decide how you would like to take action.
Settings
You have the option to choose what type of alert you would like to receive, one option is for an alert soon as the pattern is detected, the 2nd is for when price break the neckline.
below in the settings you have an option to determine what classifies a break. Either the price has to close over the neckline or it can be just a wick, up to you.
You can change all colours of the patterns, labels and line styles.
There are extra labels which can help explain when the pattern is spotted or point out when the neckline is broken depending on your choices
You can also change the frequency in which the patterns will be spotted where 1 is the lowest. We currently believe that 1 spots enough patterns however if you want more feel free to change this.
Use Cases
One is to simply try DCA into the Box if the DB / DT lines up with your support or resistance,.
Another way you can use this on the neckline breaks to confirm the pattern, in the settings you have an option to decide whether you want the close or the wick to trigger the neckline break.
Thirdly, one which we have had the most success with is lining the box plays up with divergence signals.
Feel free to leave any suggestions, happy for the feedback!
Double RSI + BBRSI stands for Relative Strength Index.
Bollinger Bands stands for a channel open by standard deviation values plotting upper, lower lines.
Double RSI with Bollinger bands adapted Bollinger bands to RSI not using overlay mode. It tries to filter fake signals while giving more good signals according to volatility even below overbought areas or above oversold areas. This way you can use greater values for RSI, like 25 and 100, increasing smoothness with less market noise.
We added an extra gap spacer to smooth Bollinger bands while widening the channel with a lower multiplier.
I found better results when Fast RSI crosses back into Bollinger bands channel.
You can play with the following settings:
• Source
Close is the most used
• Fast RSI length
Default to 25
• Slow RSI length
Default to 100
• RSI Smoothing
To filter out some graphic noise
• RSI Overbought, Oversold
Regular overbought, oversold lines handled by a single value. For 70/30, set it to 20 although with longer RSI something around 15 is enough.
• Bollinger Spacer
Ads thickness to the channel with lower multiplier
• Bollinger Length
Regular Bollinger length applied to slow RSI
• Bollinger Multiplier
Regular Bollinger multiplier applied to slow RSI
Disclaimer:
For study purposes only, trading without a good risk management can be regrettable, do your own research, always add confirmations, use it as is, at your own risk.
Pro Trading Art - Double Top & Bottom with alertThis indicator is based on ta.pivothigh and ta.pivotlow function. And with the help of different ph and pl I am detecting double top and double bottom.
Features
1. All signal are on realtime means no repaint
2. Able to detect precise double top & bottom
Input Field
Pivot Length : Default 10 => Use to detect pivot point
Dragon Double RSIMost important thing is feeling inspired and relaxed. Forcing your way into anything under stress and pressure will only end up in disaster
This indicator consists of three RSIs.
RSI: RSI is common and its length is 14.
RSI 1: The slowest RSI. The length is 100.
RSI 2: Faster than RSI 1. The length is 50.
two BollingersThe Double Bollinger Band consists of an average and two Bollingers and two backgrounds, each of which has separate settings and can be approved more strongly for trades. Moves and vice versa. With the price chart coming out of the second band, the price is much more likely to move in the same direction.
To use this feature, we had to use two Bollinger indicators with different settings at the same time, but we no longer need to do this with the Double Bollinger .
Its main use is crypto, but it can be used in all markets
double Bollinger BandsThe Double Bollinger Band consists of an average and two Bollingers and two backgrounds, each of which has separate settings and can be approved more strongly for trades. Moves and vice versa. With the price chart coming out of the second band, the price is much more likely to move in the same direction.
To use this feature, we had to use two Bollinger indicators with different settings at the same time, but we no longer need to do this with the Double Bollinger.
Its main use is crypto, but it can be used in all markets
Double RSI FilterI've seen several youtubers using 2 RSI's on top of one another to filter trades for their strategies. I figured I would just code it up as an all-in-one indicator for people who have the basic package. This way they have an extra slot for another indicator if they need one and also for convenience.
Longs only when RSI 1 is above RSI 2 and shorts only when opposite. The arrows show where crosses of the RSI's occur.
Let me know if there is something else like this where it would just be very convenient to have 2 indicators on one window or other such things and I'll see if I can do something for you guys in my spare time. I'm just an amateur coder, but learning as I do more of these for people.
Thank you!
Hope this helps someone! :)
[SK] Double MACDThe Double MACD indicator is precisely two different MACD indicators plotted on the same axis for precise visual correlation between each other.
This correlation provides more information than a single regular MACD by allowing you to compare the signals of a shorter timeframe to the default or longer timeframe,
showing the strength of the change in momentum and the peak of the momentum between both configurations.
The indicator has cloud options by default if you toggle on the MACD / Signal lines for better readability.
The cloud will change color to the line on top of it's set. This is to help you not get lost in the 4 different lines.
Customize the indicator to your preference and make it your own
If you'd like a candle like visualization, change the short MACD plot style to a histogram.
For a beautiful double bars style, select bars on both configurations and set the transparency to 30 - 40
For a dynamic moving average style, go with the line plot style ( default )
All MACD/Signal lines are toggled off by default, toggle them on in the inputs section.
On the styles panel, you can turn off the cloud fills or the lines.
Change all the colors you'd like!
Double Stochastic in one_PAYDARDouble Stochastic in one_PAYDAR
Hello dear friends;
Double Stochastic in one_PAYDAR function:
It actually means that I have used two stochastic oscillators in one oscillator with several lines in different degrees,
First Stochastic: or "Fast Stochastic", as its name implies, is a stochastic oscillator with fast parameters and is capable of detecting small oscillations and small trends.
Second Stochastic : or "slow stochastic" means a stochastic oscillator with slow parameters and is capable of detecting slightly larger fluctuations and trends.
(Of course, here I just put parameter D, because I did not want it to be crowded.)
*** This system just Suggests you for points. ***
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How to use this system ( just Suggests you) :
Buy: Whenever the first stochastic (fast stochastic ) crosses in the range of 20 or below and moves upwards, and at the same time the second stochastic (slow stochastic ) moves or crosses the green 30 line, a good time To buy or take a long position.
Sell: Whenever the first stochastic (fast stochastic ) crosses in the range of 80 or above and moves down, and at the same time the second stochastic (slow stochastic ) moves or crosses the red 70 line, a good time For sale or short position.
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*** This system just Suggests you for points. ***
My suggestion is not to use this system alone and conclude about entry and exit points according to charts, news, market fluctuations and trend direction.
This system was created by Stochastic Oscillator, which is public and open source on the TradingView site.
***I used the Stochastic Oscillator as a public domain and open source on the TradingView site***
In fast stochastics the values of the parameters are set as fast motion and in slow stochastics the values of the parameters are set as slow motion. In fact, these values of the parameters according to the function and price movement in the candles are fast and slow, and I have determined these values at my suggestion, which, of course, I have consulted with several people.
For easier use and personalization for each person, I have left access to the parameters in this system and you can easily change the parameters as you like and use it optimally for yourself.
Of course, my suggestion is to use the numbers and values of the parameters I have written.
I have put different values, which I think will be very useful for trading swings and even below the daily, but you can change the values of different parameters to your liking.
This oscillator is made of a stochastic oscillator that is open source and public on the TradingView site , of course, due to the changes I have made in the parameter values and the inclusion of two stochastics in one oscillator.
*** In this system, the main and basic oscillators is used, It is available as open source and public on the TradingView site ***
Please comment on the use of this oscillator as well as how to use it and your experiences, I will definitely welcome comments and criticisms.
I am very grateful and very loyal to TradingView ,
Be successful and profitable.
Fluffykats's Double Bottom indicator with alert v1This is a double bottom indicator with an alert that has many settings to customize your double bottom .
From Wikipedia "A double bottom is the end formation in a declining market. The pattern is formed by two price minima separated by local peak defining the neck line. The formation is completed and confirmed when the price rises above the neck line, indicating that further price rise is imminent or highly likely."
The following can be customized:
The left and right bar strengths for both the Right Top ( RT ) and Left Top ( LT ). For an explanation on RT / LT bar strength see (pivothigh) tradingview pine script API notes.
The price variance in % between RT / LT
The minimum and maximum allowable separation between RT / LT
Ability to toggle visibility of prices
PM us to obtain access
Best regards.
Double Inside BarThis indicator provides a statistical report on the Double Inside Bar pattern. Based on the chart's bars, it can improve your edge on any markets and timeframes.
A Double Inside Bar refers to a contraction where price is consolidating while making consecutive lower highs and a higher lows.
The report is broken down into the different following sections: retracement , invalidation , continuation and breakout .
Each of them provides hindsights about the pattern price behavior and brings answers to questions such as: How often does price retrace? Does the pattern often invalidate? If it doesn't then does it break in the pattern's direction? How far does price go? What are the odds of a false breakout?
While there are many ways to make use of the metrics, my favorite use case is for developing directional and daily/weekly biases while refining my stop/entry/target positioning.
Miscellaneous
Highlights patterns on the chart;
Supports bar to bar analysis and replay functionalities;
Provides counts on the `Data Window` panel for debugging or computing your own metrics;
Settings
Show/hide for toggling different sections;
Report coloring and offset on the x axis;
Gaining Access
This is a private indicator and is available only for my Patrons. You can reach my Patreon page below from the link in my signature.
Double Top Double Bottom [MS]Automatic Double Top and Double Bottom pattern scanner for any time frame, any asset.
Simple to use, just add to your chart, and set the size (in the settings) for the patterns you want to find.
• Green patterns are bullish
• Red patterns are bearish
• Alerts are available for when new patterns are displayed
• When a pattern completes (at the neckline), it will change from dotted lines to solid lines.
To scan for multiple sizes of patterns, add the script to your chart multiple times.
Use the link below or PM us to obtain access to this indicator.
Fluffykat's Double Top indicator with alert v1This is a free double top indicator with an alert that has many settings to customize your double top.
From Wikipedia "The double top is a frequent price formation at the end of a bull market. It appears as two consecutive peaks of approximately the same price on a price-versus-time chart of a market. The two peaks are separated by a minimum in price, a valley. The price level of this minimum is called the neck line of the formation. The formation is completed and confirmed when the price falls below the neck line, indicating that further price decline is imminent or highly likely."
The following can be customized:
The left and right bar strengths for both the Right Top (RT) and Left Top (LT). For an explanation on RT/LT bar strength see (pivothigh) tradingview pine script API notes.
The price variance in % between RT / LT
The minimum and maximum allowable separation between RT/LT
Ability to toggle visibility of prices
Best regards.
Double Fixed MAsThis is a version of my fixed MA script where 2 fixed MAs can be shown at once. Please see my "Fixed Moving Average" script for full explanation on what a fixed moving average is.
The defaults are the 12h 200 EMA and 12h 200 SMA. A strategy that can be used with these settings is as follows:
If price is caught in between the 2 moving averages, and is respecting them as support and resistance, then you can use a 12h candle close outside of the 2 MAs as a signal to long/short.
12h candle close above upper MA = look for longs
12h candle close below lower MA = look for shorts
Fully customizable.
As always, feel free to message me for any suggestions/questions.
Enjoy!
SMA X RSI - by @CryptoMrDavis -Another script that might be useful for your trading setup.
It use RSI and two SMA's.
Happy trading
+++ use this tool on your own risk. i'm not responsible for your loses +++
Show some ❤
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++++ cryptotradingresource.com ++++
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Jurik JMA/DWMA CrossoverThis is a crossover system that was recommended by Mark Jurik. The system consists of Jurik Moving Average (JMA) and Double Weighted Moving Average (DWMA). In case of Jurik Moving Average I use the best original JMA' clone on TradingView that has the almost identical behaviour as the original one.
As Mr. Jurik noticed:
" JMA is ideal for the fast moving average line because it is quick to respond to reversals, is smooth and can be set to have no overshoot. DWMA (double weighted moving average) is ideal for the slower line as is tends to delay reversing direction until JMA crosses it."
Reference: www.jurikres.com
Double Weighted Moving AverageMr. Jurik uses this weighted moving average to create a crossover trading system with his JMA.
To learn more see www.jurikres.com .
Good luck!
Moving Average Shaded Fill Area Crossover EMA Color - EditableMoving Average Shaded Fill Area Crossover EMA Color with option to change EMA value
DPD INDICATOR (DEMA PRICE DİFFERENCE PERCENTAGE )I use DEMA and Price difference in many strategies and and trade.
Finally , ı wanted to build an indicator for relation between them.
It calculates the percentage of difference between price and dema and estimates deviation from the main trend.
Formula = (price-dema)/price*100
There is some parameters;
DEMA Length is length of dema , ı think 50 is good enough,
there is upper and lower band for DPD Score .
You can change it based on volatilities of your pairs to find an optima.
and use it to be sure about your entry point.
I will developed and combine DPD with some other indicators and build strategies with it.
You can be part of that , I am waiting for your feedback.
Stay in Touch :)
Double Relative Strength Index (2 RSI)This is basically RSI 7 with RSI 14
Good to have them in one window so we will find a better enter in the market
