ETH Dynamic Risk Strategy

# ETH Dynamic Risk Strategy - Publication Description

## Overview
The ETH Dynamic Risk Strategy is a systematic approach to accumulating Ethereum during bear markets and distributing during bull markets. It combines multiple risk indicators into a single composite metric (0-1 scale) that identifies optimal buying and selling zones based on market conditions.

## Key Features
• **Multi-Component Risk Metric**: Combines 4 weighted indicators to assess market conditions
• **Tiered Buy/Sell System**: 3 levels of buy signals (L1, L2, L3) and 3 levels of sell signals based on risk thresholds
• **Configurable Filters**: Optional buy filters to reduce signal frequency by 30-50%
• **Visual Risk Zones**: Color-coded risk metric plot with clear threshold lines
• **Comprehensive Dashboard**: Real-time statistics including position size, P/L, and component scores

## How It Works

### Risk Components (Configurable Weights)
1. **Log Return from ATH** (Default: 35%)
- Tracks drawdown from all-time high over lookback period
- Deep drawdowns (-70% to -90%) = low risk / buying opportunity
- Near ATH (0% to -20%) = high risk / selling opportunity

2. **ETH/BTC Ratio** (Default: 25%)
- Measures ETH strength relative to Bitcoin
- Below historical average = ETH undervalued = low risk
- Above historical average = ETH overvalued = high risk

3. **Volatility Regime** (Default: 20%)
- Compares current volatility to long-term average
- Compressed volatility at lows = opportunity
- Expanded volatility at highs = danger

4. **Trend Strength** (Default: 20%)
- Uses multiple EMA alignment and slope analysis
- Strong downtrends = low risk scores
- Strong uptrends = high risk scores

### Trading Logic
**Buy Signals:**
- L1: Risk ≤ 0.30 → Buy $100 (default)
- L2: Risk ≤ 0.20 → Buy $250 total
- L3: Risk ≤ 0.10 → Buy $450 total

**Sell Signals (Sequential):**
- L1: Risk ≥ 0.75 → Sell 25% of position
- L2: Risk ≥ 0.85 → Sell 35% of remaining
- L3: Risk ≥ 0.95 → Sell 40% of remaining

**Buy Filters (Optional):**
- Minimum days between buys (prevents clustering)
- Minimum risk drop required (ensures falling risk)
- Toggle on/off to compare performance

## Settings Guide

### Risk Components
Toggle individual components on/off and adjust their weights. Total weight is automatically normalized. Experiment with different combinations to match your market view.

### Advanced Settings
- ATH Lookback: How far back to look for all-time highs (500-2000 recommended)
- Volatility Period: Window for volatility calculations (40-100 recommended)
- ETH/BTC MA Period: Moving average for ratio comparison (100-300 recommended)
- Trend Period: Base period for trend calculations (50-150 recommended)

### Trading Thresholds
Customize buy/sell trigger points and position sizes. Lower buy thresholds = more aggressive accumulation. Higher sell thresholds = holding longer into bull markets.

### Buy Filters
- Enable/disable filtering system
- Min Days Between Buys: Spacing between purchases (1-3 recommended)
- Min Risk Drop: How much risk must fall (-0.001 to -0.01 range)

## Best Practices
• **Timeframe**: Works best on daily (1D) and 3-day (3D) charts
• **Initial Capital**: Set based on your DCA budget (default $10,000)
• **Backtest First**: Test different parameter combinations on historical data
• **Position Sizing**: Adjust buy amounts to match your risk tolerance
• **Monitor Filters**: Check "Filtered Buys" stat to ensure filter isn't too strict

## Use Cases
- Long-term ETH accumulation strategy
- Systematic DCA with market-adaptive buying
- Risk-based portfolio rebalancing
- Educational tool for understanding crypto market cycles

## Disclaimer
This strategy is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk. The strategy uses historical price action and technical indicators which may not predict future movements. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

## Credits
Strategy concept and development by nakphanan with assistance from Claude AI (Anthropic). Built using Pine Script v5....Mostly from Claude AI!!!

## Version History
v7.0 - Initial release with 4-component risk metric, tiered trading system, and optional buy filters