UM VIX status table and Roll Yield with EMA

31. Dez. 2024

Description:
This oscillator indicator gives you a quick snapshot of VIX, VIX futures prices, and the related VIX roll yield at a glance. When the roll yield is greater than 0, The front-month VX1 future contract is less than the next-month VX2 contract. This is called Contango and is typical for the majority of the time. If the roll yield falls below zero. This is considered backwardation where the front-month VX1 contract is higher than the value of the next-month VX2 contract. Contango is most common. When Backwardation occurs, there is usually high volatility present.

Features:
The red and green fill indicate the current roll yield with the gray line being zero.
An Exponential moving average is overlaid on the roll yield. It is red when trending down and green when trending up. If you right-click the indicator, you can set alerts for roll yield EMA color transitions green to red or red to green.

Suggested uses:
The author suggests a one hour chart using the 55 period EMA with a 60 minute setting in the indicator. This gives you a visual idea of whether the roll yield is rising or falling. The roll yield will often change directions at market turning points. For example if the roll yield EMA changes from red to green, this indicates a rising roll yield and volatility is subsiding. This could be considered bullish. If the roll yield begins falling, this indicates volatility is rising. This may be negative for stocks and indexes.

I look for short volatility positions (SVIX) when the roll yield is rising. I look for long volatility positions (VXX, UVXY, UVIX) when the roll yield begins falling. The indicator can be added to any chart. I suggest using the VX1, SPY, VIX, or other major stock index.

Set the time frame to your trading style. The default is 60 minutes. Note, the timeframe of the indicator does NOT utilize the current chart timeframe, it must be set to the desired timeframe. I manually input text on the chart indicator for understanding periods of Long and Short Volatility.

Settings and Defaults
The EMA is set to 55 by default and the table location is set to the lower right. The default time frame is 60 minutes. These features are all user configurable.

Other considerations
Sometimes the Tradingview data when a VX contract expires and another contract begins, may not transition cleanly and appear as a break on the chart. Tradingview is working on this as stated from my last request. This VX contract from one expiring contract to the next can be fixed on the price chart manually: ( Chart settings, Symbol, check the "Adjust for contract changes" box)

Observations
Pull up a one-hour chart of VX1 or SPY. Add this indicator. roll it back in time to see how the market and volatility reacts when the EMA changes from red to green and green to red. Adjust the EMA to your trading style and time frame. Use this for added confirmation of your long and short volatility trades with the Volatility ETFs SVIX, SVXY, VXX, UVXY, UVIX. or use it for long/short indexes such as SPY.