USD Liquidity / FX Swap + Money Market Stress

This indicator shows, in a simple way, how tight or loose USD liquidity is. It combines two things: signs of stress in the FX market (Fed swap lines + dollar strength) and signs from the money market (the difference between repo rates like SOFR/TGCR and the Fed’s IORB rate). All of this is merged into a single blue line: when it rises, liquidity tends to be more abundant; when it falls, there is more stress and the dollar becomes “expensive” to obtain.

You read it like a traffic light:

If the background is red, the indicator is below the lower threshold → liquidity stress, an environment that is more prone to sell-offs and violent moves in risk assets (including crypto).

If the background is green, the indicator is above the upper threshold → more relaxed liquidity, a backdrop that is more favorable for risk rallies to be sustained.

No background color → neutral zone, neither very good nor very bad: you trade according to your usual system.

It is designed as a macro context filter, not as a buy/sell signal. In red, it makes sense to be more defensive with risk and leverage; in green, if your technical system gives a long signal, you have a somewhat more favorable tailwind. It should always be used together with other tools and strict risk management.