The weakness of ag-commodities that can be turn into their power

4. Feb.

ZC1! ZS1! ZW1! Those commodities had a very interesting price path so far. Since the Russian invasion these three commodities lost a lot of their value. More specifically wheat lost around -50% from its peak, corn -45% and soybeans around -30%. The ag-commodities market is pricing clearly in an oversold area that I think ,in my opinion , is starting to shift slowly its narrative . I think in the next months we could see some buying pressure in the ag-market. The trigger I think is already been pulled and I mean the protests of the farmers in all Europe. If this situation stays as it is today the European farmers won't return to their lands until they get what they ask (lower cost of production). However the lower cost of production as a phenomenon belongs in a healthier economy and I am sure that we are from that healthier financial environment. Geopolitical events , the unstable macroeconomic environment and so much more don't allow the economy to become better or even be stabilized . So, farmers won't give up that easy this time. But this uncertainty can benefit the U.S.-based commodities (wheat, corn soybeans) . In my opinion in the next few months , a gap will be created in the supply-demand chart. People will need food but the marketplace won't be able to fill that need. So European countries could use the us marketplace to fill up their gaps.

disclaimer: this idea is more like a diary and less like an article . I had the need to write down my thoughts about that