Your analysis was still a good analysis even though it did not do what you projected . However, if one were to go to XMRUSD, they would see you were spot on. This is a "prime" example of "why" I chart all pairs I trade if that pair is also traded in USD. It's extremely beneficial to keep up with any pair you trade in BTC's if it's also traded in USD. One has to keep up with what BTCUSD is doing as well. As you know, BTCUSD definitely impacts other alts.