BTC Relief Rally + Trend Continuation
Lots of action. Let's dive in. I think the most important tf to look at right now is the daily, but let's start with the weekly for some context.
Wyckoff: Last time I posted, we were in a valid Phase D JAC. Now we find ourselves on the edge on JAC invalidation. The close of the weekly will tell us more, but in general, for a valid JAC, we should not have retraced this far to test. The re-accumulation structure can still be valid, however, we are on the edge of having to acknowledge that we might still be in Phase B. More information will surface on the weekly close.
Quick S/R Analysis: Obvious Weekly resistance is above at just about 6.9k which represents the wick from last week's candle. Weakened support is in the low 6ks, with stronger support in the mid 4k level.
Onto the meat...
The daily.
We are feeling a bit of relief today after a relentless sell off. A strong reaction could be expected after such a steep sell off, but in my opinion, the damage has been done. Longing the bottom was a very high risk affair, and I would not have recommended it to anyone.
Wyckoff: The daily shows us coming all the way back down to the bottom of the prior micro trading range, invalidating the SoS rally, and generally giving us a very bearish signal. Nothing too concrete on a new trading range as of yet, at least on the daily time frame.
MOST IMPORTANT:
S/R Analysis: The daily is giving us some clear resistance areas as highlighted in pink (the top chart). These should represent good short entry points, and I believe many traders will be acting at these levels. I will be looking for price to wick above these resistance areas, liquidating eager short sellers and trapping bulls. Make no mistake, the road ahead will be filled with traps. Give yourself some breathing room by managing risk accordingly.
Fibs: Previous relief rallies have topped out at around the .382 level (currently at 7k). I think this level is a good candidate to repeat that trend.
Bollinger Bands: It was pointed out to me by another trader, optictropic, that the Bollinger Bands have provided good insight into the past year of action. On the declines, the daily Bollinger band mid-line provided excellent resistance. The current midline is declining and my provide such resistance at around 7k. If the midline is rejected, it's resonable for us to expect to see price reach the bottom of the band in the near future.
Pivot Points: a quick zoom into the 4 hour chart allows us to view the daily pivot points. Resistance is in confluence with points identified by other means. 6.6, 6.95, 7.2k.
Plan of Action: Overall, I plan to go short at the resistance points mentioned above, depending on the strength of the bullish effort. In the immediate term, a scalp long may be appropriate on a retest of the 6.38k level.
Best of Luck.
Wyckoff: Last time I posted, we were in a valid Phase D JAC. Now we find ourselves on the edge on JAC invalidation. The close of the weekly will tell us more, but in general, for a valid JAC, we should not have retraced this far to test. The re-accumulation structure can still be valid, however, we are on the edge of having to acknowledge that we might still be in Phase B. More information will surface on the weekly close.
Quick S/R Analysis: Obvious Weekly resistance is above at just about 6.9k which represents the wick from last week's candle. Weakened support is in the low 6ks, with stronger support in the mid 4k level.
Onto the meat...
The daily.
We are feeling a bit of relief today after a relentless sell off. A strong reaction could be expected after such a steep sell off, but in my opinion, the damage has been done. Longing the bottom was a very high risk affair, and I would not have recommended it to anyone.
Wyckoff: The daily shows us coming all the way back down to the bottom of the prior micro trading range, invalidating the SoS rally, and generally giving us a very bearish signal. Nothing too concrete on a new trading range as of yet, at least on the daily time frame.
MOST IMPORTANT:
S/R Analysis: The daily is giving us some clear resistance areas as highlighted in pink (the top chart). These should represent good short entry points, and I believe many traders will be acting at these levels. I will be looking for price to wick above these resistance areas, liquidating eager short sellers and trapping bulls. Make no mistake, the road ahead will be filled with traps. Give yourself some breathing room by managing risk accordingly.
Fibs: Previous relief rallies have topped out at around the .382 level (currently at 7k). I think this level is a good candidate to repeat that trend.
Bollinger Bands: It was pointed out to me by another trader, optictropic, that the Bollinger Bands have provided good insight into the past year of action. On the declines, the daily Bollinger band mid-line provided excellent resistance. The current midline is declining and my provide such resistance at around 7k. If the midline is rejected, it's resonable for us to expect to see price reach the bottom of the band in the near future.
Pivot Points: a quick zoom into the 4 hour chart allows us to view the daily pivot points. Resistance is in confluence with points identified by other means. 6.6, 6.95, 7.2k.
Plan of Action: Overall, I plan to go short at the resistance points mentioned above, depending on the strength of the bullish effort. In the immediate term, a scalp long may be appropriate on a retest of the 6.38k level.
Best of Luck.
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