Comprehensive Analysis on XAUUSD Using Elliott Wave Analysis

28. Juli

1. Short-term (H1 Chart):

• Wave Structure:
• The chart shows a completed five-wave impulse pattern, denoted as (i), with a subsequent correction likely underway, labeled (ii).
• The first wave (i) consists of five sub-waves (i, ii, iii, iv, v).
• The correction wave (ii) appears to be forming an A-B-C structure.
• Fibonacci Retracement:
• The correction wave (ii) is approaching the 23.6% retracement level, with potential support at the 38.2% level around 2291.674.
• Indicators:
• MACD: Shows a significant bearish momentum, indicating that the downward correction might continue.
• RSI: The RSI is at 26, suggesting the market is in oversold territory, which might indicate a potential reversal soon.

2. Mid-term (H4 Chart):

• Wave Structure:
• The H4 chart depicts a more extensive wave structure, showing the correction wave (ii) of a larger degree.
• The entire move from 9 April 2024 appears to be an extended impulse wave with a complex corrective pattern.
• Fibonacci Levels:
• The 38.2% retracement of the larger wave structure coincides with the 2291.674 level, providing a strong potential support zone.
• Further significant levels include the 50% retracement around 2161.568 and the 61.8% level at 1988.706.
• Indicators:
• MACD: Extremely bearish, confirming the downward pressure.
• RSI: At 24.81, indicating deep oversold conditions, hinting at a possible short-term reversal or consolidation.

3. Long-term (Daily Chart):

• Wave Structure:
• The daily chart illustrates a long-term bullish trend with a primary five-wave sequence completed and a corrective wave (2) following.
• The structure indicates that the market is in wave 3 of a larger degree, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend after the completion of the current correction.
• Key Levels:
• The 38.2% retracement level of the entire upward move is around 2291.674, matching the mid-term and short-term charts’ key support.
• The projected target for wave 3 is around the 2650.000 level.
• Indicators:
• MACD: Shows a bearish crossover, suggesting a continuation of the corrective phase.
• RSI: At 44.91, indicating a moderate bearish momentum but not yet oversold, suggesting there could be more room for the correction before resuming the upward trend.

Trading Strategy:

Long Entry Points:

1. Short-term:
• Consider entering long around the 38.2% retracement level (2291.674), watching for bullish reversal signals such as bullish divergence on RSI or a bullish crossover on the MACD.
2. Mid-term:
• Accumulate long positions within the 2291.674 to 2161.568 range, focusing on the 50% retracement level for stronger support confirmation.
3. Long-term:
• Strong long-term buy signals would be around the 2291.674 level or lower, especially if the price approaches the 61.8% retracement level (1988.706), looking for confirmation from MACD and RSI for a reversal.

Stop-Loss Placement:

• Place stop-losses below the 50% retracement level (around 2161.568) to protect against deeper corrections.

Target Levels:

• Initial target levels can be set at the previous high around 2560.000 and extend towards the wave 3 target of 2650.000 in the long-term.