Analysis:
Trending is bearish, but possible bounce for correction, once $1214 holds,in combination with the bad data.
for AB=CD,D tg will complete at $1215, then see a bounce to
$1233-1237, till Jul 12.
Strategy:
1) Long, if $1214 holds;
Estimated Entry:$1215-1217
Tp1:$1233
Tp2:$1237-$1241
Tp3: to be advised after BO $1241.(Back to above $1241,will possible return to bull.)
2) Sell on rally, and add to short after BO neckline.
Estimated entry1:$1233-1237
Entry2: $1217, after BO $1214
Tp1:$1189-1190
Tp2:$1148-1143
Tp3: to be advised after BO $1120
Data Analysis and Forecase:
Unemployment-rate Forecase: Negative(about 4.4%)
Data ralated:
1.Jobless claims for the first time:continue to go up since Jun 11
2.Continuing claims for unemployment benefits:continue to increase since May 21
3.Manufacturing PMI:continuing down since Jan 2017
4.Non manufacturing PMI: steady at 56-58 for 8 month,in the past 1year.
5.Service PMI: slow up since Mar.2017, but already reached it's peak on Jan.2017
6.Factory order:under 0 level,since Arp.2017
7.unemployment-rate:continuing decrease since Jan 2017,esitmated to stuck at 4.3-4.4%.
NFP(Non-Farm Payrolls) Data Forecase: Negative(about 140-160k)
1.NFP data: slow down after Jun 2016, during the last 3 month all under 200k
2.ADP(ADP employment change):slow down after reached it's peak on Jan 2017
under 158k in Jun.2017.
3.Manufacturing employment:slow up since Dec 2016 between 11-22k, but in May, dropped down to -1k,estimated data in the following month are -10 to 10k.
Average Hourly Earnings Data Forecase: Negative(about 0.2)
During the past 1year, it fluctuated between 0.1-0.4, mostly between 0.2-0.3
Trending is bearish, but possible bounce for correction, once $1214 holds,in combination with the bad data.
for AB=CD,D tg will complete at $1215, then see a bounce to
$1233-1237, till Jul 12.
Strategy:
1) Long, if $1214 holds;
Estimated Entry:$1215-1217
Tp1:$1233
Tp2:$1237-$1241
Tp3: to be advised after BO $1241.(Back to above $1241,will possible return to bull.)
2) Sell on rally, and add to short after BO neckline.
Estimated entry1:$1233-1237
Entry2: $1217, after BO $1214
Tp1:$1189-1190
Tp2:$1148-1143
Tp3: to be advised after BO $1120
Data Analysis and Forecase:
Unemployment-rate Forecase: Negative(about 4.4%)
Data ralated:
1.Jobless claims for the first time:continue to go up since Jun 11
2.Continuing claims for unemployment benefits:continue to increase since May 21
3.Manufacturing PMI:continuing down since Jan 2017
4.Non manufacturing PMI: steady at 56-58 for 8 month,in the past 1year.
5.Service PMI: slow up since Mar.2017, but already reached it's peak on Jan.2017
6.Factory order:under 0 level,since Arp.2017
7.unemployment-rate:continuing decrease since Jan 2017,esitmated to stuck at 4.3-4.4%.
NFP(Non-Farm Payrolls) Data Forecase: Negative(about 140-160k)
1.NFP data: slow down after Jun 2016, during the last 3 month all under 200k
2.ADP(ADP employment change):slow down after reached it's peak on Jan 2017
under 158k in Jun.2017.
3.Manufacturing employment:slow up since Dec 2016 between 11-22k, but in May, dropped down to -1k,estimated data in the following month are -10 to 10k.
Average Hourly Earnings Data Forecase: Negative(about 0.2)
During the past 1year, it fluctuated between 0.1-0.4, mostly between 0.2-0.3
Trade ist aktiv:
longed 1220.37
Kommentar:
4H chart: it just hit our target entry:$1217, and still holds, so we go long for a bounce to tp1
Trade ist aktiv:
bo 1217, closed long and will turn to short once 1214 bo
Trade ist aktiv:
bo 1214 already, go short
Kommentar:
1H chart still in bearish tone, lower tf see some bounce.
Kommentar:
4H chart update: Diving to deep blue sea??
Trade wurde manuell geschlossen:
profit taken
Kommentar:
1H chart update:
Shorted from 1213, if 1207 holds, will take profits and wait to short again on 1217
Shorted from 1213, if 1207 holds, will take profits and wait to short again on 1217
Kommentar:
1H chart update: going to test 1214, and watch whether it will bo this level
Trade ist aktiv:
shorted from $1223, sl:$1233
Kommentar:
1H chart update: take care of short term support at 1220, broke 1218 will heading tg:$1199
Kommentar:
move sl to Breakeven
Trade wurde manuell geschlossen:
hit sl and breakeven. short term will test 1225-1229
Trade ist aktiv:
opened small short positions from 1222, with tight SL broke channel ceiling will close
Trade geschlossen: Stop wurde erreicht
Unemployment-rate:4.4% same as we forecase
NFP(Non-Farm Payrolls):220k, better than we expected
Average Hourly Earnings: 0.2, same as we forecase