Gold Outlook (Short-Term 6-12 months; Long-Term: 1-3 years)
I think most people fail to realize that we broke down from a multi-year uptrend and we probably are experiencing an actual correction of the Elliot Wave count as I have shown in my previous posts. As one can see, I'd like to believe that we are currently in wave IV-A of the gold -0.02% super cycle, in which case is seen to correct at 38.2%, or around $800 to $900 in the next three years. As such, looking at the weekly chart, we might be heading towards the mid-line of the section at least in the next few weeks at $1100 (probably July-August) with the arrows indicating possible moves after the completion of the downward movement. Fundamentally speaking, this could be attributed mainly to market stabilization, as gold -0.02% has risen rapidly amidst the geopolitical uncertainties (Brexit, US, UK, French Elections) to which clearer resolution and continued dollar strengthening as a result of relatively stable economic conditions surrounding the US economy. Of course, market uncertainties still continue to exist and will definitely occur, causing short term spikes in the precious metal's price; nevertheless, these issues will be very short-term in nature, and will most likely be reversed as soon as news dies down.
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Closing below 1249 gives us a high probability of the downtrend.
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Realized I put the update in the comments. Entered short $1228.
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Addig shorts around $1220-$1222
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Beautiful, beautiful drop. Now we have to be on the lookout for the distribution phase around $1195-1197.
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Added shorts $1224.
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Correction: $1214 not $1224
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Don't be fooled by this up move. This will last for probablt just one more day.
