Feb 17th 29/38 Short Strangle
Probability of Profit: 68%
Max Profit: $130/contract
Buying Power Effect/Max Loss: Broker Dependent/Undefined
Break Evens: 27.70/39.30
Notes: (1) Here, as is my habit, I'm selling the 20 delta call and put. (2) I went out a little bit farther in time to the monthly, since things are generally more liquid there, so I would be more likely to get a fill at the mid without too much diddling around. (3) Look to manage at 50% max profit or about $65/contract.
Feb 17th 25.5/33/33/41 Iron Fly
Probability of Profit: 50%
Max Profit: $392/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $408/contract
Break Evens: 29.08/36.92
Notes: (1) The first thing I did was check to see what a three-wide iron condor would pay with the short options at the 20 delta strikes. It was less than 1/3rd the width of the strikes, so I switched to putzing with a fly. (2) Look to manage this setup at 25% max profit (~$98/contract). (3) While the setup looks "sexier" from a max profit standpoint, you'll also notice that the profit zone is narrower than that of the short strangle. Nevertheless, is defined risk going in, so I know what my max loss is if the thing blows up in my face.