USDJPY BUY setup

Long

US-Dollar / Japanischer Yen (OANDA:USDJPY)

Aktualisiert

OANDA:USDJPY US-Dollar / Japanischer Yen

USDJPY

usdjpy

looks like wave 2(blue) is completed.
it's clear abc 3-3-5 flat pattern
wave C is 1.618 of wave A (113.68)
wave 2 retraces 61.8% of wave 1(blue) (113.73)
in my book it's a good buy opportunity.
good luck, traders!

Trade ist aktiv:

wave C is actually longer than I expected, but it still does not move beyond the start of wave 1 (112.56).
wave 2(blue) corrects 78% of wave 1 and bottoms in the price range of wave 2 of lesser degree.(green)
wave C channel is broken.
so, buy setup is still valid.

Kommentar:

Elliott wave theory is been criticized for its flexibility in forecasts, but it's still the best predictive tool.
So I want to present you an alternative view on (yellow) C wave configuration, which is a part of ABC pattern that corrects (yellow) 3rd wave (rise from 27/09/2016 to 15/12/2016).
Wave C is always a 5 wave structure(impulse or diagonal), and it was formed on 17 jan, there also were an ending diagonal in 5th wave of lesser degree(last swing), which indicates reversal. looks like a very good ending for wave C(yellow).
this scenario is still in play. invalidation comes, when price goes below 17 jan bottom(112.56).
but there is an alternative, which comes in play, when price goes below 17 jan bottom.
ALTERNATIVE 1: wave 3 is an extention. in this case, we need wave 5 to complete wave C(5 wave structure)
target may be 111.67 (38.2%).

ALTERNATIVE 2: our entire C wave (5 wave structure) is just 1st wave extention of true 5 wave structure for wave C.
Current wave 4 corrects less than 38% of wave 3. it may be not enough.

Trade with care!