FX Update: Was that it, or do we see a proper climax wave?
Summary: USDJPY swooned to a pivotal level yesterday without yes breaking as the JPY thrived on weak risk sentiment and tumbling commodities prices, together with a fresh plunge in safe-haven bond yields. Elsewhere EURUSD continues to tease in the 1.1765-1.1800 area with no resolution. The wave of risk-off yesterday has sent the usual suspects lower, with somewhat little follow-through today as sentiment has stabilized slightly.
FX Trading focus: Still risk of a climactic move, one that brings with it fresh opportunities
Yesterday’s wave of risk-off took the USD higher and the JPY higher still as US treasuries spiked sharply, taking yields to their lowest for the cycle, with the 10-year benchmark a chunky 10 basis points lower and closing south of 1.20% and headed lower still in today’s trade. Intraday yesterday, the JPY was outgunning the USD significantly and sent USDJPY to a key support level as noted in the chart below, while the EURUSD can’t find inspiration for a directional move. The smaller DM and EM currencies were generally lower against the greenback, with CAD and NOK particularly weak on a stunning five dollar per barrel retreat in oil prices.
The US equity market managed a bounce just ahead of the close of the session yesterday (we note that the bounce unfolded at a pivotal level for the S&P 500 on this morning’s Saxo Market Call podcast), one that followed through to a degree into Asian and European hours today, but that move has faded somewhat and long US yields are punching down to new lows for the cycle, as are EU sovereign yields as the German Bund yield screams lower today to under -40 bps. As noted on the podcast, this move may not yet have exhausted itself and could even deepen viciously as those that have positioned themselves with heavily leveraged longs for this cycle may find liquidity is insufficient for an orderly reduction of positions. This will likely also present significant opportunities for establishing trades if volatility spikes sufficiently to bring the inevitable next easing move from central banks and governments. In that regard, positioning should be modest for an extension of this trend (also as trading ranges are expanding) with some powder reserved for when/if things get disorderly.
Chart: USDJPY
The JPY has edged out the US dollar since early yesterday, with a solid move lower yesterday that was halted at the key support/pivot level we have noted previously – namely, the 61.8% retracement of the rally wave from the April lows of 107.50 near 109.10, which is also near the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud. The JPY is finding support nearly across the board from the plunge in oil prices (Japan imports all of its oil although prices for LNG are soaring due to a Northeast Asian heat-wave), widening EM credit spreads and sharply lower safe haven yields. This 109.00 area in USDJPY is critical for whether the JPY continues to outperform the greenback here. A reversal would likely need a sharp rally and close above 110.00 and might coincide with a general reversal of the risk-off backdrop, or at least with a reversal in treasury yields back higher if that is not the same thing.
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The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
FX Trading focus: Still risk of a climactic move, one that brings with it fresh opportunities
Yesterday’s wave of risk-off took the USD higher and the JPY higher still as US treasuries spiked sharply, taking yields to their lowest for the cycle, with the 10-year benchmark a chunky 10 basis points lower and closing south of 1.20% and headed lower still in today’s trade. Intraday yesterday, the JPY was outgunning the USD significantly and sent USDJPY to a key support level as noted in the chart below, while the EURUSD can’t find inspiration for a directional move. The smaller DM and EM currencies were generally lower against the greenback, with CAD and NOK particularly weak on a stunning five dollar per barrel retreat in oil prices.
The US equity market managed a bounce just ahead of the close of the session yesterday (we note that the bounce unfolded at a pivotal level for the S&P 500 on this morning’s Saxo Market Call podcast), one that followed through to a degree into Asian and European hours today, but that move has faded somewhat and long US yields are punching down to new lows for the cycle, as are EU sovereign yields as the German Bund yield screams lower today to under -40 bps. As noted on the podcast, this move may not yet have exhausted itself and could even deepen viciously as those that have positioned themselves with heavily leveraged longs for this cycle may find liquidity is insufficient for an orderly reduction of positions. This will likely also present significant opportunities for establishing trades if volatility spikes sufficiently to bring the inevitable next easing move from central banks and governments. In that regard, positioning should be modest for an extension of this trend (also as trading ranges are expanding) with some powder reserved for when/if things get disorderly.
Chart: USDJPY
The JPY has edged out the US dollar since early yesterday, with a solid move lower yesterday that was halted at the key support/pivot level we have noted previously – namely, the 61.8% retracement of the rally wave from the April lows of 107.50 near 109.10, which is also near the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud. The JPY is finding support nearly across the board from the plunge in oil prices (Japan imports all of its oil although prices for LNG are soaring due to a Northeast Asian heat-wave), widening EM credit spreads and sharply lower safe haven yields. This 109.00 area in USDJPY is critical for whether the JPY continues to outperform the greenback here. A reversal would likely need a sharp rally and close above 110.00 and might coincide with a general reversal of the risk-off backdrop, or at least with a reversal in treasury yields back higher if that is not the same thing.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
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