FX:USDCAD   US-Dollar / Kanadischer Dollar
370 1 11
uscad shurt
Trade ist aktiv: An early entry at 50% fibo is not bad, an entry at .618 fibo would be ideal-
As I dont leverage at all, my trades are set and forget for a few years. Will add to position as income allows.
Same strategy was followed during USD bull since 2008, no worries if I miss the sweet spot for a couple of cents.
Trade ist aktiv: Slide started at fibo 50% but it could still rebound to .618 and thats fine too. Im all in in this an AUD.
Kommentar: Wave 3 must be longer than wave 1, and usually is 1.618 times wave_1 lenght. so there is your target. give it a year or two for completion.
Kommentar: could it be an early start of wave three? so far only looks like abc.
Kommentar: those who are expecting a rebound up at fibo .618 are just in time to board...
In my humble opinion is not advisable as they would be trading countertrend.
Kommentar: a little surprised a bounce has not yet developed, but then again, this is the start of wave three down correcting 5 years up. has wayyy more to go down, but not in a straight line ffs.
Kommentar: Once price falls below 1.30724 you can kiss the usd bull good bye.
Kommentar: Ok today wave 4 minor of wave 1 down (of the BIG three wave down) looks completed. Expect one more push down today or tomorrow to complete the 5 ,THEN a retrace up in zigzag abc to .618 wave 1 will complete wave 2. Attention to position yourself here because this is your LAST point of maximum advantage entry. Once wave three of big three down starts it will be a zapper.
Kommentar: last wave down of series of 5 completed, bounce up to .618 imminent. in a zigzag, abc. then supershort opportunity in wave 3 of three down.
Kommentar: price did fall below 1.30724, USD bull is kaput.
Kommentar: Starting to consider the possibility that wave three be just as aggresive as wave 1 was. So far, its a carbon copy of it.
Kommentar: "THEN a retrace up in zigzag abc to .618 wave 1 will complete wave 2. Attention to position yourself here because this is your LAST point of maximum advantage entry. Once wave three of big three down starts it will be a zapper."

We touched the above expected retrace on friday 20th jan, on what looks like wave 'a' of the abc. . It could still linger some more but moment is good now to board this short.
Kommentar: a break below 1.30247 would be a rather large nail on the usd coffin. Leverage 1 to 1 on this since start day. This is 50% of long term parked capital, other 50% is AUD
Kommentar: This friday there was an enormous volume spike. Largest in the couple of years shown by tv. price barely moved.
Kommentar: However... Notice how in every occasion that there has been a volume upsurge, the price drops significantly immediately thereafter. 2016-2-12 and 2016.11.15 The volume this time exceeds those.
Kommentar: unsure how to label the descent yet. But this large wave 2 has to end and drop in a large wave 3. so stick to the trade, leave it be.
Kommentar: REVERSE!! GO LONG NOW. price 1.306 target 1.380
Kommentar: ok, it might be that usd climbs up some more. i dont care for the 3 cents Up, as much as I do for the 20 cents down . Im going long CAD for a year or two.
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht: iF YOU WERE LONG USD, CLOSE NOW. FIBO 618 IS THERE NOW .

A SHORT COULD BE ENTERED HERE. go CAD!

Its a little scary to be on the verge of such a LARGE shift.
Kommentar: PRICE 1.372...
Kommentar: price 1.254 . usd target still 7 cents below, but a small bounce is due.
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht

Ähnliche Ideen

Thanks for your great analysis!
Here is my view on USD/CAD if you are interested:

Based on Market Profile (volumes) and Price Action there are two very strong resist/support zones.
The short level (1.3666) is placed where a cummulation before a strong sell-off took place.
The long level (1.2922) is based on strong rejection activity accompanied by huge volumes (seen on the right cummulative volume on the right).

If you are interested there are more Market profile swing and intraday analysis in my profile page. You are very welcome there!
Dale
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