USD/CAD Breakout of channel short term setup

8. Mai 2016

The recent breakout of the loonie from an exasperatingly stretched descending channel at ~ 1.27, gives hope for some upside. This is a projection of a possible rally following a basic elliot wave path calibrated with fibonacci levels. Shortly after the open this coming week I'll wait for a pullback and then enter long as shown with target at ~ 1.32. This position will obviously need confirmation of the dollar sustaining its current rebound and the fed remaining slightly hawkish with regard to a possible June hike. Moreover, oil prices will have to remain rangebound and not see violent upswings for this setup to work.

10. Mai 2016

Anmerkung

It's moving a little bit too laterally for my taste.. I missed the little push back for an entry and now I'm unsure given how high and volitle the dollar currently is. From this point, if the 3rd wave ended ath the recent high then it would be bad news for the Elliot formation, as the third wave should generally be the longer...

12. Mai 2016

Anmerkung

The wave patter is broken as point 4 (if you see the recent high as the actual point 3 instead of the projected one) has come down to overlap and surpass point one, which is a clear violation of the Elliot wave theory rules.
I guess I underestimated the strength of CAD

12. Mai 2016

Anmerkung

And underestimated the strength of the recent oil rebound, impressive!