Results of Central Banks, US GDP and ADP

31. Okt. 2019

Let’s analyze the key events of yesterday. Consumer confidence in the Eurozone is rather depressed, as indeed the entire economy of the Eurozone. But at the same time, the euro did not show any specific movements.

The dollar, on the contrary, despite the relatively good statistics, was losing its way. Preliminary data on US GDP for the third quarter came out much better than analysts' forecasts (+ 1.9% y / y with a forecast + 1.6% y / y), consumer spending also showed growth. Employment data from ADP (especially important in anticipation of tomorrow's data on NFP) also higher than expected (+ 125K with a forecast +110 K).

Although we note that fact that USD paired with the Canadian dollar strengthened due to the decision of the Bank of Canada to leave the rate unchanged. Therefore the USDCAD provided an excellent opportunity for its sales, as we recommended in yesterday. It means that you can sell it today.

The main event of yesterday, of course, was the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee. The rate was cut by 0.25%. As a result, the dollar continued to suffer losses in the foreign exchange market. Our recommendation on the dollar remains unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. Tomorrow we are waiting for the official statistics on the US labour market, which is likely to lead to the formation of a full downtrend. But we will talk about this tomorrow.

The Bank of Japan: the rate is unchanged. The press conference of the Central Bank will take place after the publication of this review, so we’ll talk about its results tomorrow. In the meantime, we tend to buy the yen primarily against the dollar.

Today we are waiting for the statistics on GDP growth in the Eurozone, data on personal income and expenditure in the United State to come out.

Our recommendations for today: sale USDCAD, as well as the dollar as a whole in the foreign exchange market; buy gold and sale the Russian ruble.