UKOIL Bearish Flag and Pessimistic OPEC Expectations (June 5th)
UPDATE: Closed at 61.50
EDIT -- ZOOM OUT TO SEE FLAG, take no notice of the Harmonic Pattern
This is a clear bearish flag, no doubt about it. Been rebounding in the channel since the start of Jan2015.
A break of the lower part of the channel could signal a further fall continuation to previous Supports/Resistances of
54.58, 52.17 and more severely, the Jan low of 45.56. We've also got Feb 2009 Supports of 39.
Psycological levels of course 60, 55 (based off of confluence see rectangle Feb 2015), 50, 40 and so on.
Stops @ 66.10
Reason for this is that I'm not aiming for "a trade" where my Risk/Reward would usually be 1:1
More of a long term target with a short-term stop
On the Fundamental Side this is relating to USOil Price Action, but the underlying idea is the same
Seeing that after the November 27th meeting, when OPEC decided not to cut production, Oil ended up plummeting ~$30.
A couple of weeks ago, the OPEC Head, or the Iranian/Saudi Oil Minister, i can’t remember which one, said that it is highly unlikely that we’ll ever see oil at $100 again.
With that in mind, seeing that Oil is now flirting around the $60 handle, any decision to cut production on June 5th, could send Oil a great deal higher, maybe ~$20-$30.
Therefore, that being the case, it seems extremely plausible that OPEC do end up sticking to the status quo. In which case, hello $40 again.
Fully welcome any ideas to prove me wrong/different viewpoints.
EDIT -- ZOOM OUT TO SEE FLAG, take no notice of the Harmonic Pattern
This is a clear bearish flag, no doubt about it. Been rebounding in the channel since the start of Jan2015.
A break of the lower part of the channel could signal a further fall continuation to previous Supports/Resistances of
54.58, 52.17 and more severely, the Jan low of 45.56. We've also got Feb 2009 Supports of 39.
Psycological levels of course 60, 55 (based off of confluence see rectangle Feb 2015), 50, 40 and so on.
Stops @ 66.10
Reason for this is that I'm not aiming for "a trade" where my Risk/Reward would usually be 1:1
More of a long term target with a short-term stop
On the Fundamental Side this is relating to USOil Price Action, but the underlying idea is the same
Seeing that after the November 27th meeting, when OPEC decided not to cut production, Oil ended up plummeting ~$30.
A couple of weeks ago, the OPEC Head, or the Iranian/Saudi Oil Minister, i can’t remember which one, said that it is highly unlikely that we’ll ever see oil at $100 again.
With that in mind, seeing that Oil is now flirting around the $60 handle, any decision to cut production on June 5th, could send Oil a great deal higher, maybe ~$20-$30.
Therefore, that being the case, it seems extremely plausible that OPEC do end up sticking to the status quo. In which case, hello $40 again.
Fully welcome any ideas to prove me wrong/different viewpoints.
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