2023/4: Surfing TQQQ - Awaiting Entry eta end June

31. Mai 2023

Technicals:
1. RSI has probably peaked
2. MACD has probably peaked

Fundamentals:
1. None

Analysis:
1. Awaiting downward move for potential June Entry

2. Juni 2023

Anmerkung

Technicals:
1. Seasonals looking for a pullback in the end of June, as expected:

jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/718951144281554944/nasdaq-and-russell-2000-lead-june-pre-election

Analysis:
1. Awaiting end June entry

14. Juni 2023

Anmerkung

TQQQ: 39.90

Technicals:
1. MACD has refused to move down over the past 2 weeks
2. Price kept moving up to a ridiculous $39.90 now
3. There is little chance of it moving down enough over the next 1 week to allow an entry

Fundamentals:
1. Fed Reserve probably will pause tonight (finally), but it will have no bearing on our opportunity (point 2 above)

Analysis:
1. Wave is unlikely to be optimal to enter, but keep watch anyway for the next month.

23. Juni 2023

Anmerkung

TQQQ: 40.14

Technicals:
1. MACD (on QQQ) has printed its first negative (after almost a month of waiting..)

Fundamentals:
2. Summer holidays is here and I do not believe fund managers will want to leave so much risk on the table over the next few weeks/months when they can print an outstanding first half

Analysis:
1. Keep watching and see if it makes a bottom by early July.

26. Juni 2023

Anmerkung

TQQQ: 37.81

Technicals:
1. MACD printing the 2nd negative bar shortly
2. Based on symmetry, it will go positive only on 21 July, which means it would peak in Aug - not ideal exit point based on fractals

Analysis:
1. Will keep watch and see situation.

4. Juli 2023

Anmerkung

TQQQ: 41.28

Technicals:
1. MACD printing a rise back to positive again
2. Very likely to move to positive in the next 2-3 sessions

Analysis:
1. Do we take this trade?
2. I think it is highly risky but could go either way, never know
3. My inclination is to stay out, because of the yummy 6% yield I'm getting for MINT
4. But a trading plan is a trading plan and it is not good to deviate from it

13. Juli 2023

Anmerkung

TQQQ: 41.97

Technicals:
1. Here we are again, not able to make the positive last week, and moving to positive MACD
2. Another likely move to positive in next 2-3 sessions

Fundamentals:
1. Yesterday inflation numbers printed at 3% year on year and 0.2% in June and set up the rally on all assets and a dump in the USD

Analysis:
1. It is way too late to enter into TQQQ at this time
2. It would have been barely ok to enter in early July
3. I confirm my preference to stay out
4. I don't think there is much gas to move up much more
5. Risk adjusted, it is not worth it
6. Will monitor just for the sake of seeing price action

15. Juli 2023

Anmerkung

TQQQ: 44.02

Technicals:
1. Finally, 2 days later, we have printed the first positive MACD

Fundamentals:
1. This is bullish only based on Fed halting rates and belief in a soft landing

Analysis:
1. This entry is only for those who love risks, and worse, comes with little potential reward - but anything can happen
2. As I confirmed, I will stay out
3. Will follow this move up and then to exit

24. Juli 2023

Anmerkung

TQQQ: $42.69

Technicals:
1. We got our first negative MACD

Analysis:
1. This is the signal to get out, and it is not surprising coming in just into the summer holidays
2. This trade would have been slightly negative, but it was expected, and I stayed out anyway
3. I will be on my vacation too, and back looking for trades on TQQQ again in September, in the meantime, its 100% in money market getting yummy rates
4. Have great summer holidays, see you soon!