1Creekdoc

Inversion of the yield curve 10 year minus 2 year yields

Short
The yield curve between the 10 and 2 year has been collapsing since March 2021. It is erie to behold that the inversions of the yield curve were occurring 1-2 years before past recessions occurred in 2000 and 2008 and even before the recent pandemic. One can see when complete inversion occurs when the basis point difference goes BELOW ZERO. It would seem quite possible we are seeing the beginning of another recession as the yield curve flattens. One can also see periods of steepening and reflation when the opposite trend occurs. This is a useful tool for equity investors to see when the water is safe for investing. Right now, it appears caution is advised and a recession may be imminent.

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