But the sentiment about Europe is turning again. Why?
Listen to Bob Pisani, CNBC: "Yet there it was: The German DAX down 1.2% to a new low for the year, with the rest of Europe down as well. What gives? It's obvious that political fears are trumping economic optimism ."
Why? Because the trading community knows they were wrong on Brexit, they know they were wrong on Donald Trump winning the White House.
Now they are beginning to realize that they could be wrong on the direction of European politics, and they are trying not to get surprised again."
And this is what traders needs to focus on:
European Voters feels threatened by Vladimir Putin in the East and Donald Trump in the West. Marine Le Pen made last Sunday probably a big mistake: She is trying to copy Donald Trump (Make France great again) and same time she is in favour for Vladimir Putin.
Maybe she might fall back behind Emanuell Macron earlier than epected because of this. The mistake Investors are making is probably that French and European Voters are also scared as investors are about any far right wing party. Germany´s AfD lost in 4 weeks only more than 40% of theire likely voters. The polls showing that the AfD falls back quickly from almost 18% to 10% only.
Expect the unexpected: European Voters turning more to those parties calling for a more united and stronger Europe.
If you have doubts about this than google what´s going on in Rumania right now.
Expect that Le Pen falls short behind Emanuell Macron. Voters in Europe now more scared about Trump and Putin than Millions of refugees. Thisfore any Trump-Putin connections backfires Marine Le Pen.
Feb 11 2017: Quote, Donald Trump: "I don´t know anything about this."
Quote: The scandal over Mike Flynn's secret talks with the Russians, explained
Updated by Zack Beauchamp@firstname.lastname@example.org Feb 10, 2017, 1:29pm EST
Donald Trump’s national security adviser, Michael Flynn, may be in a lot of trouble. Late Thursday night, the Washington Post reported that Flynn had called Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak on December 29, the same day that Obama had slapped new sanctions on Russia in retaliation for its hack of the US election. The conversation covered the sanctions, and, according to two officials, suggested that the Trump administration would be rolling back the sanctions in the future. That would mean Flynn had been actively trying to undermine Obama administration policy while not yet in office — a big, questionably legal no-no. Indeed, the FBI is currently investigating the content of the Flynn calls. The Trump administration repeatedly and publicly denied that Flynn had spoken to Kislyak about sanctions, even enlisting Vice President Mike Pence to back him up in the media. Flynn himself told the Post on Wednesday that he hadn’t talked about sanctions. But the Post spoke to nine former and current US officials with knowledge of the call, which was actually recorded by US intelligence agencies (as all such high-level calls to the Russian ambassador are). Subsequent reporting from other outlets backed the Post up.
On Thursday, Flynn, through his spokesperson, backed away from the denial. The spokesperson said Flynn “indicated that while he had no recollection of discussing sanctions, he couldn’t be certain that the topic never came up.”
All of which means that it’s very likely that Flynn lied about the content of his talks with the Russian ambassador. That leaves two big outstanding questions:
Did Flynn lie to Pence about sanctions, or did Pence knowingly lie to the American public?
Did Flynn lie to FBI investigators, too?
The answers could help determine whether Flynn keeps his job — and, potentially, whether he faces criminal charges.
Investors facing two risks at the same time:
1. To underestimate the far right wing movement. The EU might be broken up.
2. To miss strongly rising European Stockmarkets, if ever the far right political parties might fail in France and Netherlans to take over political power until May 2017.
Some more fact´s:
Quote: Investors have been cautious about investing in the continent given the Greek debt crisis that gripped markets in 2015 — again — and last June's surprise U.K. vote to leave the European Union. The months ahead bring major elections in France and Germany, which some worry could strengthen populist voices and even threaten the breakup of the EU. But some of the largest investment firms now say it's time to buy Europe, especially since U.S. stocks look expensive at all-time highs and emerging market stocks have already rebounded with a 9 percent jump so far this year. Source: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/why-inves...
Quote: European stocks are the cheapest they've been relative to their U.S. counterparts in nearly 40 years, and they have more upside potential for profit growth, making them an attractive buy even with looming political risk, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.The analysts made a bullish case Thursday to buy Europe, based on the idea that corporate earnings there have bottomed and are set to see double-digit growth for the first time since 2010. On a price-to-book basis, Europe is the cheapest it has been to the U.S. in nearly 40 years. European equities have seriously underperformed U.S. stocks over the past nine years, with the total return index for MSCI U.S. beating MSCI Europe by 105 percent in dollar terms from the trough in 2008. Source: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/09/these-sto...
Dutch PVV, Wilders anti Islam Party, lost almust 40% of Voters since Trumps inauguration on Jan. 20th. Germany´s AfD lost also up to 40% of voters.
Todays Dutch polls showing a dramatic loss for Wilders anti islam party PVV. Polls from January 20 showing a huge vitory for Wilders winning up to a total of 36 lawmakers in the elections. Todays polls showing only likely to win 20 seats in Parliament. A huge loss of allmost 40% of Voters in one month only.
Quote: With his uncompromising language about immigration and Islam, Geert Wilders has been stirring up Dutch politics for several years now. But since the election campaign in the Netherlands formally began Wednesday, polls have shown that his popularity is on shaky ground. His far-right Freedom party (PVV) still holds an advantage over the ruling Conservative (VDD) party, but one that is narrowing.
Wendy Jansma, a 29 year-old healthcare student, was considering voting for Wilders. She likes that he has “the guts” to talk about problems, and is willing to put Dutch people ahead of newcomers. But the behaviour of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has caused her to reconsider. “I am afraid when I look at Trump – I don’t want to have someone like that in power here. That would be taking a big risk,” she told Vice News.
Todays topic is yesterdays Trumps meeting with "the press". People getting scared about Donald Trump. Latest poll in Germany is showing, that 78% of all Germans now scared (!) about Trump. Same time far right parties losing massively voters in Europe. The latest opionion poll in the netherlands is showing a dramatic loss of Voters for Wilders. If ever this numbers migh be confirmed in the next days than Wilders lost 40% (!) of all voters sind Trumps inauguration. https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlaments...
Expect Donald Trump is losing more and more supporters. Same time the low approval rates explaining why Trumps tone since few days getting more and more aggressive. Expect another u-turn if Trump recognize that he will fail if he do not change this way of communication. Expect that one of his aids (Conway/Spicer/Bannon) gets "fired" next. This will cause another spike to the upside for stockmarkets.
Quote: One French hedge fund manager said he was relaxed about the election outcome, with Ms Le Pen considered a long shot in scenarios that require an unexpected turn of events, such as support for Mr Macron crumbling.
“The only way for the Front National to gain power is to secure more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round,” said Renaud Champion, head of credit at La Française GIS. “The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections.” Source: https://www.ft.com/content/0f1fdff6-f469...
Trump’s Approval Ratings Are Down. How Much Does It Mean?
Commodities16 minutes ago (Feb 18, 2017 04:31PM ET)
By Noah Barkin
MUNICH (Reuters) - One month into the unusual presidency of Donald Trump, his most senior cabinet members were deployed to Brussels, Bonn and Munich this week to reassure nervous Europeans that everything would be okay. ...
.... "Pence and Mattis and Tillerson can come here and talk about the importance of the transatlantic relationship and NATO - and that is all good," said Elmar Brok, head of the foreign affairs committee of the European Parliament and a party ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But we don't know what's coming on Twitter tomorrow morning," he said, referring to Trump's penchant for spilling out policy statements via social media. Source: https://www.investing.com/news/commoditi...
Drama mounts on Capitol Hill over Trump and Russia ties, 2016 election interference
Here’s how Congress is handling Russia investigations
Leigh Ann Caldwell
2 Hours Ago
Drama is building on Capitol Hill over current and potential investigations into Russia's alleged interference in last year's election and the pre-inauguration contacts between President Donald Trump's national security adviser and Russia's ambassador. At the end of a week's worth of new revelations and a resignation, FBI Director James Comey held a closed-door meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee Friday.
Latest poll from today is showing Germany´s anti EU and anti Muslim Party AfD droped to 9% of likely voters in the September election. This is a huge loss of 50% of all likely voters. One day before Trumps inauguration opinon polls showing the AfD to win at least 16-18%.
Investor´s Sentiment, Europe, Germany:
Today´s Handelsblatt.com survey is saying
1. Pro´s put buying at Germany´s Eurex is as high as before the U.S. election.
2. Retail Investors Sentiment is most negative sind 2015.
French police searched the headquarters of Marine Le Pen’s far-right Front National on Monday evening as part of an official investigation into “fake” jobs involving the misuse of European Union funds to pay for a bodyguard and an assistant in Paris. Brussels investigators claim Le Pen paid her bodyguard, Thierry Légier, more than €41,500 (£35,350) between October and December 2011, by falsely claiming he was an EU parliamentary assistant. She is also accused of paying nearly €298,000 between December 2010 and 2016 to her France-based assistant Catherine Griset.
To qualify as a parliamentary assistant, the person needs to be physically working in one of the European parliament’s three offices in Brussels, Strasbourg or Luxembourg and be resident near that workplace. The European anti-fraud office (Olaf) has insisted Le Pen, 48, a frontrunner in France’s presidential campaign, repay the money, a total of €340,000. She has refused and is currently having it deducted from her MEP’s salary. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/f...
by Stephen Spratt
Hidden under the surface of European bond markets, traders are placing bets that will pay out if the risks in the euro zone severely escalate. Markets across the continent have started to price in the increased potential for anti-euro candidates to win elections in France and Italy. Recent positioning in German and Italian bonds are hedges against a blow-up in the risk of a breakup in the common currency, said traders in London and New York, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Six-month German securities have rallied more than benchmark tenors this month and open interest in two-year note futures has surged, suggesting investors are building up long positions in assets that are the closest to cash in terms of safety. The yield spread between Italian low- and high-coupon bonds has widened as traders bet against the latter, which would fall much more if the country’s creditworthiness is called into question. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...
John Harwood | @johnjharwood
6 Mins Ago
Quote: So, Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, a former retail executive, has pronounced border adjustment an economic threat. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, home base of Wal-Mart, has vowed to fight it. John Cornyn of Texas, who worries about the effect on oil prices and serves as the Senate's second-ranking Republican, last week pronounced border adjustment "on life support." Those three Republicans alone — if they hold firm — could be enough to sink the idea in a Senate where Republicans control just 52 seats. Source: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/21/border-ta...
Quote: Euro plummets to 6 week lows as Le Pen's presidential bid looms: SocGen
Investors appear to be increasingly nervous ahead of the scheduled elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany after failing to foresee the outcomes of the U.K.'s Brexit vote and U.S. President Donald Trump's victory. "So much uncertainty with 9 weeks to go until the first round of the (French) election means we will probably see nervousness persist, and undermine the Euro across the board," Societe Generale analysts concluded. Soure: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/22/euro-plum...
Germany´s far right wing and antie EU and anti Islam Party AfD dropped today to 8% of likely voters fro 18% last year. This is a huge loss of 60% of all likely voters since August 2016.
Netherlands far right wing and anti EU, anti EURO and anti Islam Party PVV (Wlders) is loosing very fast ground now week by week and lost at least 25 - 40% of all likely voters. The PVV is now expected to win 16% of all votersonly to become probaly second stronges party only. This is the lowest numbers in more than two years. The Nederlands elections is held on March 15 2017.
Today´s facts about Netherland elections: Donald Trump backfires European far right wing parties. http://www.politico.eu/article/mark-rutt...
Quote: Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) and Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) are in a dead heat in the lead-up to the March 15 Dutch election, according to a poll published Wednesday. Analyst Tom Louwerse told local media that while Rutte’s party has been relatively stable over the course of the past few weeks, Wilders’ has been on a slight downward trajectory, sliding from an expected 35 seats in polls last month. Both Wilders and Rutte are likely to fall short of an absolute majority in parliament. Rutte has ruled out cooperating with the far right to maintain power.
Quote: Selling pressure on French bonds ebbed on Thursday, pushing the yield on the 10-year bond back below 1 per cent, as the prospect of a centrist alliance in the country’s presidential election eased anxiety that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win.
VVD: 28 Seats
PVV: 26 Seats
Story telling like this backfires European far right parties. U.S. and U.K. Traders underestimate how this is going to affect all European Elections. European Voters turning away from far right parties wich all supporting Donald Trump.
Quote: Trump cited a ‘substantial’ friend Jim who no longer visits the City of Love.
By Chris Spillane 2/25/17, 10:30 AM CET Updated 2/26/17, 1:31 PM CET
.... Trump said Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland on Friday that his friend “Jim” no longer goes to Paris despite being a regular visitor in the past. ....
.... She added that bookings from U.S. tourists for the first half of 2017 have risen 30 percent compared with the previous year. And French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault tweeted that “3.5 million American tourists visited France in 2016, they’ll always be welcome.” ...
Quote: Marine Le Pen's chances of becoming France's next president may be slipping and investors are breathing a sigh of relief.
A poll released Tuesday by French firm Ifop showed the far-right candidate's lead over centrist Emmanuel Macron declining to just 1.5 percentage points. Another poll released by Opinionway showed Macron defeating Le Pen in the May 7 runoff election. France holds two rounds of voting in presidential contests. French bond prices rose after the polls, bringing their yields closer in line with more steady German yields. The French 10-year note yield declined to 0.888 percent, narrowing its spread with the 10-year German sovereign yield to around 0.68 percentage point. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices.
French 10-year yield in 2016
Quote: A Group of European members of parliament on Tuesday voted "overwhelmingly" to lift the immunity of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen for tweeting pictures of Isil violence.
Ms Le Pen, 48, an MEP, is under investigation in France for posting three graphic images of Isil executions on Twitter in 2015, including the beheading of the American journal. Source:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/28/marine-le-pen-angers-french-police-threat-purge-civil-servants/
Quote: Investors are concerned about the continued rise of populism could upset the current political and economic system, but Andrew Parry, head of equities at Hermes Investment Management, expects Europe to react against populism this year.
"There's the political risk that appears to be hanging over Europe. I think somewhat ironically, the more that people think that Trump is the embodiment through populism of the new economic model, the more you actually get a reaction against populism in Europe," he told CNBC's Street Signs. Source: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/06/europe-po...
Number of seats to win next wednesday:
PVV: 22 (Netherlands far right party, Geert Wilders, hould had won 38 in June 2016)
Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source: http://uk.businessinsider.com/trumps-app...
Before you read this news about todays market action (link below) keep your attention to the high level of putbuying at the CBOE: Total Intraday Put/Call Ratio 1,13. If ever there might be any higher number before the weekend the remind that usually high numbers like this are followed by a major spike to the upside some trading days later. Expect that a "fail" for Donald J. Trump might be nothing else than "sell the news" (for shortsellers). You need to invert the situation.
DAX Traders need to be aware that the EUWAX Sentiment Indicator today once more was extremely negative - means nothing else that putbuying was extremely high.
Quote: Wall St closes lower after Healthcare vote delay
Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:
MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
Quote: In recent polls, AfD (Germany´s far right party) has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold
Head of AfD, Frauke Petry (41), who has been under pressure within her Party, has now struck back – by indirectly threatening to step down
In recent polls, AfD has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold (currently seven percent, according to Allensbach). Without Petry, this might become even more of a tight squeeze. In the end, the party might fail to make it into parliament. Source: http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/frauke...
Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.
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