Spy

17. Nov.

This post here analysis is more about the longer term picture (Months)..
It's been awhile, so here we go.


Lets start with NYA
This represents 3000 stocks and gives a better picture of the market then S&P which is heavily weight tech.

Weekly chart -
We are at the top of a 15year resistance. Price slightly broke above it but was slammed back inside last week.




As you can see the structure is a wedge and I believe that over the next weeks and months NYA will correct back to wedge support or 17,500


This drop will be 8-10% and weigh heavily on the broader market and cylicals


Next up Is Dow jones or DJI

Weekly chart is pretty much identical to NYA so the analysis is the same


Daily chart
My correction target is 38,000
Or 10% drop



IWM
Surprised? Similar chart as DJI and NYA. Only difference was that parabolic move I circled that happen late Nov on the presidential election of 2020. Otherwise this 15yr trendline resistance has stayed resilient. We tagged resistance near ATH and I think we will get one more push back up to 236-239 before it's goodnight.


Daily chart IWM
My pullback target will be trendline support or 208/210 price action which would represent a 14$ drop from ATH



IXIC (Nasdaq)
I'm charting the Nasdaq instead of QQQ/NDX because QQQ only covers the top 100 tech names while IXIC covers all tech

Weekly chart
Closed up near top of resistance of Weekly channel. I circled the fake breakouts and break downs.


What was really bad about this week was the Dark cloud cover candle on the weekly .. This candle is pretty rare to see on the indexes; for reference I had to scroll back almost 10yrs and here's what I saw

July 20, 2015



My target for the nasdaq will between 17,500 - 17,800
Which would represent a 10% drop from ATH.



These are weekly charts and weekly forecast which means these corrections may take anywhere from 45-60 days to play out but I think it will happen before the election.. it's important to trade the time frame you are using.

For example, you don't want to take this analysis and just start 0dte puts or buying weeklies.. like I said this may take 2months to play out.

Also this is just the weekly, the hourly has now been severely oversold as a result of 3days of chop and 2 days of and I think the market will rally back up near ATH before the sell begins so don't go chasing shorts early.. imagine last week's leg down as the center line in a double top. I think early this week we'll rally up to make the right top.
Afterwards we should chop for thanks giving and drop afterwards like so



SPY is 14% extended from its weekly 50sma. Last three times this happened spy corrected
8-10% within 30-50 days


My correction target for the Spy is 540 or 200sma which would represent a 10% pullback from ATH



So a summary of this post is, I expect a push to the upside early this week and then if the sell does not happen by Thursday then it won't happen till after Thanksgiving