The real trendline and supp/res levels. Get ready to sell!
In fact I see only one really perfectly matching major trendline: starts from May/2015 high, second peak 20/July/2015, third peak 3/Nov/2015..... Price is approaching this major and not too steep trendline again.
If you move this trendline parallel down, you get a lower channel resistance, again with perfect matches 20/Jan/2016 and 11/Febr/2016 lows.
The pattern repeat is just something really amazing. Remember my Bullish "W"endetta call last year? (see linke below) It happened again, with only difference in second low, which was a slightly higher low compared to Sept/2015 higher low of the pattern.
As I have warned in last few weeks, amarket may seem to be overbought, or valuation look "unreasonably" too hig, but until you have a proper setup to sell, it is just guessing and top hunting. And for a proper high probability sell we need minimum one thing: Kijun Sen to catch up closer to price.
let's see the details of the setup and support levels:
- Ichimoku setup is bullish, with obviously no corrective wave at all (!) during this so far 15 % rally from the bottom! Same as in October 2015. It had looked overbought for a while, just like now. Price has been too far above Kijun for some time now, but instead of retracing, market is making new highs, which makes Kijun Sen slowly catching up.
- Heikin-Ashi candles are bullish with no doubt. But watch how massive negative divergence haDelta has built!
- EWO is also bullish, but it is again back to an extreme high level, and most likely it will make either a double top, or a lower high compared to the 18/March peak.
- Bearish trendline is only 1 %+ from current level.
- Supports: 2053 (Tenkan) / 2000 (Kijun) / 1975 (100WMA) / 1947 (Kumo - spot and also forward Senkou B)
Looking at the divergences and the fact SP500 is approaching a very important resistance ar 2090-2100, I don't think this pace is sustainable. Market for sure will not collapse, but could pull back to 2000+... funny thing is, that would mean a possible repeat continuation of the past pattern seen in November/2011.
4H:
- Ichimoku is bullish, with lower Key support at 2053.
- Heikin-Ashi candle pattern shows short term momentum loss is possible.
- EWO has built a massive negative divergence. Wave momentums are less powerful, while Price is making higher highs (as I read elswhere, also volume is quite low).
It is time to get prepared for a counter short. Size should not be bigger than 1 volatility risk adjusted trade unit.
When to sell? Simply use daily Tenkan = 4H support = 2053 as an entry trigger.
Bearish acceleration expected below 2045.
Braves can try some small top hunting here with 0,5 unit. Not more risk!!! Remember: "Markets can stay irrational for longer, than you can stay solvent!" Trading is all about risk management, and odds provided by setups!
If you move this trendline parallel down, you get a lower channel resistance, again with perfect matches 20/Jan/2016 and 11/Febr/2016 lows.
The pattern repeat is just something really amazing. Remember my Bullish "W"endetta call last year? (see linke below) It happened again, with only difference in second low, which was a slightly higher low compared to Sept/2015 higher low of the pattern.
As I have warned in last few weeks, amarket may seem to be overbought, or valuation look "unreasonably" too hig, but until you have a proper setup to sell, it is just guessing and top hunting. And for a proper high probability sell we need minimum one thing: Kijun Sen to catch up closer to price.
let's see the details of the setup and support levels:
- Ichimoku setup is bullish, with obviously no corrective wave at all (!) during this so far 15 % rally from the bottom! Same as in October 2015. It had looked overbought for a while, just like now. Price has been too far above Kijun for some time now, but instead of retracing, market is making new highs, which makes Kijun Sen slowly catching up.
- Heikin-Ashi candles are bullish with no doubt. But watch how massive negative divergence haDelta has built!
- EWO is also bullish, but it is again back to an extreme high level, and most likely it will make either a double top, or a lower high compared to the 18/March peak.
- Bearish trendline is only 1 %+ from current level.
- Supports: 2053 (Tenkan) / 2000 (Kijun) / 1975 (100WMA) / 1947 (Kumo - spot and also forward Senkou B)
Looking at the divergences and the fact SP500 is approaching a very important resistance ar 2090-2100, I don't think this pace is sustainable. Market for sure will not collapse, but could pull back to 2000+... funny thing is, that would mean a possible repeat continuation of the past pattern seen in November/2011.
4H:
- Ichimoku is bullish, with lower Key support at 2053.
- Heikin-Ashi candle pattern shows short term momentum loss is possible.
- EWO has built a massive negative divergence. Wave momentums are less powerful, while Price is making higher highs (as I read elswhere, also volume is quite low).
It is time to get prepared for a counter short. Size should not be bigger than 1 volatility risk adjusted trade unit.
When to sell? Simply use daily Tenkan = 4H support = 2053 as an entry trigger.
Bearish acceleration expected below 2045.
Braves can try some small top hunting here with 0,5 unit. Not more risk!!! Remember: "Markets can stay irrational for longer, than you can stay solvent!" Trading is all about risk management, and odds provided by setups!
