Short

Aktualisiert

NQ Range (10-06-25, Week 2)

Churning in the Churn Zone, back at Mid Level (ML) of range. Watch the 2 yellow dash levels, break to upper/lower churn range is redirect or counter move. Example, White arrow range play stall at 425 should reject to start or lower yellow arrow. Reverse that should NAZ drop to the start or yellow arrow (unless it is the big one). Still favoring the SHORT side and not chasing any upward moves. Go Fed, Tweets, Next Stimulus, Wash ST Capital Management & Margin Services, etc. Just seems like the lift on fumes is good set up for the counter move (if you can play that, example Wash St Hedge Fund). Ya think? No, why not?

Anmerkung

Same Tricks/Patterns so far. I will be out today, here are some potential plays.

Anmerkung

Like I said, out today. The 25,200 pop did pull back near KL 094 for next wiggle higher. Not sure it goes to top Churn channel. All O/N, again. Give the Short side some time, the higher the better.

Anmerkung

10/7 Update, I was out yesterday (Monday 10/6) for the AMD news (move) that pumped the tech trade (AI). I had time to review many Big Deals such as Tariffs, Intel (US Gov't), AMD/Open AI, etc. The one thing that I noticed was the lack of details and how most moves up in market were in pre market or off session. The other was the sideways move based on what I would consider to be major or huge deals (would expect a higher move in the market). NAZ has been sideways for past 11 trading days (staying near 24,095) with most lifts in O/N, this does appear to be weakness based on the amount of news/deals/Tweets that have been released over the period (NAZ should be much higher).

Anmerkung

Divergence cooking IDS75, pop or drop is next (usually these will drop test 1st).

Anmerkung

Under 275 is a Short.

Anmerkung

Under 150 is Strong Short, No drop and slow lift higher

Anmerkung

Divergence still active for a drop.

Anmerkung

Scalping Shorts, same old PA.

Anmerkung

Boat is heavily loaded to one side and will need to rebalance some. Decent drop may be near.

Anmerkung

275 is hook short or pop up, to sideways and then next move above 275 is Long and under is Short

Anmerkung

Push/Pull in the range since yesterday Open, take away the 30-40 move with AMD (in Pre Market) and we are lower. O/N again lifted NAZ to 275 and we have to get above or this will drop. Unless the Dead Zone can pop it on no-low volume?

Anmerkung

Short at 250-60, No Stop.

Anmerkung

If you have the points, you can probably short as the NAZ lifts to the upper target (should it reverse here or bounce). Scalp lower moves and we may see a bounce in DZ or O/N as these drops take forever. Just a bigger picture view. Back Later as the snail crawls to nowhere.

Anmerkung

Now place stop at 275 as the redirect Tweets may show up. Or let it ride.

Anmerkung

Lower Stop or Trail it, too easy. Reg Session selling again after O/N Rig Pump. How much longer can this go on, it has been 2-3 years.

Anmerkung

Broke under 150, let's see what happens now, NO Tweets OH MY.

Anmerkung

You have to wonder what will redirect this should it continue, trail it. The Tweets or O/N will show up (redirect) prior to massive drop. Use this as lower shake out guide.

Anmerkung

Back later, just notice hat the Short play has moved more than Long Prop O/N Garbage. Should this hold, we may have a direction change in the works (from the Reg Session).

Anmerkung

Back to lower Shake Out level, big move next (up or down) Keep trailing the Short.

Anmerkung

Just watch the Tweets, should drop nicely here.

Anmerkung

25,000 target hit/held, now the NAZ needs to stay under KL 150. The sneak lift into the Close and O/N is the move (will try) here.

Anmerkung

Entry, Target, Exit, Scalp the Shorts until All hell breaks loose.

Anmerkung

As NAZ lingers along lower, pay attention to the volume as it may get heavy on the selling side as we are tracking at a higher rate today.

Anmerkung

FYI, IDS75 will stay Red (Short) and not show false signals. This will need to play out and stay under the RED Moving Averages above. Under 25,100-150 is your guide here and may lift - stall - drop, only variable is the LIFT in the Overnight (90% chance it goes sideways to up). No lift in O/N, this may be a decent drop deep in the lower Churn Zone.

Anmerkung

Past 8 days, O/N lift to Reg Session selling, then O/N lift to Reg Selling. What I have been looking for is the break in pattern. The focus is with the session that can handle the heavier volume. Since Reg sells mostly and can handle volume, we may start there with a decent drop test. That may switch the O/N into sell mode and that may be the "all hell break loose" moment.

Anmerkung

Combo view of IDS27/75, both Short. NAZ will need Magic potion in final 30M (or O/N lift).

Anmerkung

O/N will try stall and drop

Anmerkung

10/8 Update, O/N does stabilize and attempt a few lifts higher. You may want to look Long today, Hook move may be in works. Below on 10/1 we had a drop that was followed up by a Hook Long (in the Reg Session). Today we are looking at an Air Pocket drop or Hook Long set up. Should the AP drop it may go to lower Churn Zone and Danger Zone edge. Since nobody wants THAT, may see reverse of that idea today.

Anmerkung

Looking at daily chart or Dollar, Crude and VIX it appears that hey can move higher. Looking at most LC Tech (MAAG 7), most appear to be stalling at resistance. NAZ will need an All Cylinder type counter move in order to take it down. Dollar, 10YN, Crude & VIX (going up) with most MAAG 7 dropping would be the start, need to see if Reg Session picks up (more) selling volume today.

Anmerkung

1st 30M is Long move.

Anmerkung

NAZ bounced off lower channel, play range of recent high and support zone.

Anmerkung

25,250-60 may reject some and provide a drop test signal for next move.

Anmerkung

Points to play with, Shorting up to 260 from 220. Looking for Open ML retest.

Anmerkung

Stop at 280

Anmerkung

Needs to get under 150, same play scalp the Shorts until "all hell breaks loose", not sure NAZ can get above 260. The Dead Zone will try and lift it, failure there is your SHORT Signal.

Anmerkung

Approaching 150 after 2nd attempt higher. Dead Zone Failure is what we are watching. Watch the Tweets/Tricks under 150.

Anmerkung

AI is looking like a Pump TO Dump based on the DETAILS that are now out on the many deals that Juiced the move. The Dump part of the move may not play out should this all hold up, may take months to years to see the results. This may be why the intraday price action is slow. We may be in a Long only waiting game until results show up. Closing Short today for small profit. I would expect the sideways to lower (Reg Session) and O/N lifting to be the primary moves for days and if not weeks.

Anmerkung

Short Closed

Anmerkung

Done for today, in tomorrow and out on Friday. Not really watching that closely unless we get a move near 25,300-400 or near 24,900.

Anmerkung

Stalling near 25,280-300

Anmerkung

Hook Short time or Pop up into the O/N Safe Zone.

Anmerkung

IDS27 Divergence, may not play out with drop as we are near O/N.

Anmerkung

25,100 is target on a drop, not likely until tomorrow O/R. Also, volume is extremely low today so a drop will usually follow.

Anmerkung

25,320-40 is what to watch for drop set up. NAZ stays below may set up drop into tomorrow Reg Session.

Anmerkung

In week 2 of forecast NAZ is 100 point above prior high and 100 points under 1st target (Top Churn Zone). No rejection at 1st target (25,450), look for slow lift upward with Friday-Monday Long play next. Stall out now or above will likely see a retest of KL's 25,094 and 24,750 and out of channel. NAZ has been moving sideways in the Churn Zone for now 18 days.

Anmerkung

10/9 Update, NAZ under 320-40 and rejected near top CZ. Staying with Churn Zone chop, play for today and tomorrow.

Anmerkung

Watch 275-340 range today, Short under

Anmerkung

275 Hit and under.

Anmerkung

Under 340 is key here. Head Fake long to major drop. Above 340 may go weak sideways.

Anmerkung

Head Fake drop into Push/Pull PA, looking like sneaky drop to play out.

Anmerkung

Yesterday I was Short at 220-240 and closed, not was early. Closed position and let it lift to near Top Churn Zone. When you see a relentless move, let it go until then next day and after the O/N (usual lift). Then look for the retest. Wait wait wait until the long lift dies off some, the drop will usually follow as the machines will adjust and take profit. Now the Dead Zone may try and redirect this, expect some Tweets and such. Shorting Scalps until all hells breaks loose is the idea and should move quickly (for a lower retest). Here 25,100 looks good for a lower target and potential U Turn move on a hit.

Anmerkung

Watch KL 193, under should move lower quickly. Try not to get shaken off today.

Anmerkung

193 HIT, just keep in mind that Gov't issued NOISE is off and the only antidote would be the TWEETS. That actually sets up the favor of a decent drop under 193, has to get back under or DZ lift it is.

Anmerkung

Sideways to Shake out Zone.

Anmerkung

Back later, 193 should be or may be retested for a redirect back up. Under 193 on retest is deeper move and part of Shake Out. Just watch for 260 rejection. Enter, Target, Exit (until all hell breaks loose). DZ has low volume and is much harder to trade. Next decent play will be the Open Drive on Friday, that is all you get these days. BTD/FOMO with the Clown Zombies during the balance of other periods (Until all hell breaks loose).

Anmerkung

260 rejection and 193 retest, for next signal or move.

Anmerkung

Here comes the Wash ST. Breaking News to redirect, right on time after double KL Retest, like clockwork. Should the lift not hold, short it again. This is what trading has become, buyers/sellers and now Gov't Tweets/News battling.

Anmerkung

Shorts at KL 260 to lower KL have been working and looking for break out lower.

Anmerkung

Since O/R drop it have been all Sideways Shake Out, sad. The play will try to get to the O/N and lift should the drop get held up by the EOD.

Anmerkung

Interesting Chart, the white arrows are selling days. The wider days have more trades/volume. The narrow days are mostly thin volume buying days. Look at the projection close for today, that would suggest a Drop or U Turn, unless we see sideways for the next 1.5 hours. Today does stick out from other resent days and has been primarily selling. Keep in mind that the NAZ usually will not change course. Should the Sideways move play out until the Close, most likely it will be followed with the lift in the Overnight into Friday-Monday Long play.

Anmerkung

I question the move yesterday during the Reg Session and why the pull back today? Should this go under KL 25,094 it may be something to note and look for a deeper drop. The O/N up next and then Friday-Monday deal may create a delay in that test unless we see a quick drop in to the Close (unlikely).

Anmerkung

Comparison of a Long Day vs a Short or sideways day, which is easier to trade? That may be why Long days move with ease, may also be the Short set up since we need both buying and selling.

Trade wurde manuell geschlossen

10/10 Update, Out today and good luck today.

Anmerkung

Friday did have a decent drop just after the Open Drive.

MAZing

Haftungsausschluss

Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.

MAZing