Earnings is upon us ... .
NFLX announces earnings on Monday after market close.
The April 27th 285/347.5 short strangle is paying 11.05 at the mid (yikes!), with a 70% probability of profit; the 68% probability of profit April 27th 272.5/277.5/355/360 is paying 3.36 (67% of the width of the spread).
UAL announces Tuesday after market close.
The April 27th, 71% probability of profit 62/71.5 short strangle is paying 1.34, with the 67%-er April 27th 58.5/61.5/71.5/74.5 paying .65, although bid/ask on the long aspects of that setup are wide, so you will want to recheck that during regular market hours to see if you do better, with a >75% of the width of the wings being the ideal.
IBM announces on Tuesday after market close. Its background implied volatility metrics aren't ideal at 29%, but that figure may ramp up slightly running into the announcement.
Currently, the April 27th 148/165 is paying 2.09 (74% probability of profit), with the April 27th 143/148/165/170 paying 1.23 (70% probability of profit).
On the exchange-traded-fund front, not much excites me here for new trades; I'm already basically in four out of five of the top background implied volatility symbols (OIH (34); XOP (34); EWZ (31), GDXJ (20), and FXI (25)), and those have all dropped below that 35% background metric I like for entering those trades, although XOP and OIH are probably "close enough."
I've also been watching RSX, the Russia exchange traded fund, to potentially take some kind of a directional shot at fading this dip, whether it be via short puts or one of my other "funky" setups (See Post Below). The other one I'm watching for a longer-dated directional bullish shot is XLF, with some single names that announced last week taking it a bit in the groin for various reasons. Given the price of the underlying, it's workable for smaller accounts, although it hasn't historically been a great straight-up premium selling play with its weak sauce implied volatility and doesn't pay much divvy (.43 annualized; 1.57% yield) if you routinely eye things from that perspective.
NFLX announces earnings on Monday after market close.
The April 27th 285/347.5 short strangle is paying 11.05 at the mid (yikes!), with a 70% probability of profit; the 68% probability of profit April 27th 272.5/277.5/355/360 is paying 3.36 (67% of the width of the spread).
UAL announces Tuesday after market close.
The April 27th, 71% probability of profit 62/71.5 short strangle is paying 1.34, with the 67%-er April 27th 58.5/61.5/71.5/74.5 paying .65, although bid/ask on the long aspects of that setup are wide, so you will want to recheck that during regular market hours to see if you do better, with a >75% of the width of the wings being the ideal.
IBM announces on Tuesday after market close. Its background implied volatility metrics aren't ideal at 29%, but that figure may ramp up slightly running into the announcement.
Currently, the April 27th 148/165 is paying 2.09 (74% probability of profit), with the April 27th 143/148/165/170 paying 1.23 (70% probability of profit).
On the exchange-traded-fund front, not much excites me here for new trades; I'm already basically in four out of five of the top background implied volatility symbols (OIH (34); XOP (34); EWZ (31), GDXJ (20), and FXI (25)), and those have all dropped below that 35% background metric I like for entering those trades, although XOP and OIH are probably "close enough."
I've also been watching RSX, the Russia exchange traded fund, to potentially take some kind of a directional shot at fading this dip, whether it be via short puts or one of my other "funky" setups (See Post Below). The other one I'm watching for a longer-dated directional bullish shot is XLF, with some single names that announced last week taking it a bit in the groin for various reasons. Given the price of the underlying, it's workable for smaller accounts, although it hasn't historically been a great straight-up premium selling play with its weak sauce implied volatility and doesn't pay much divvy (.43 annualized; 1.57% yield) if you routinely eye things from that perspective.
