Dollar vs Bitcoin: who wins?

9. Apr. 2022

Hey guys.
In this study I compare the dominance of the dollar in the crypto market, against the price of Bitcoin.
The dominance of the dollar in stable coins represents the percentage of capital in this asset in relation to the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
When this percentage rises, it means that people are more positioned in dollars.
On the contrary, when the percentage drops, it means that there is a higher positioning in the other cryptoassets.

If we look at the dominance of stable coins, such as 'USDT.D' (Theter), 'USDC.D' (Circle), etc., and compare with Bitcoin,
we can say that there is a negative correlation.

In the graph at the top that I present to you, I added the dominance of all the important stable coins -- USDT, USDC, DAI, UST, BUSD, HUSD, USDK.
And not to leave out the weight of the traditional market, I also added the DXY (U.S. Dollar Currency Index).
In this one I divided the value by 100, aiming to have a more adequate measure proportion.

On the bottom chart of the screen we have the price of Bitcoin, in an ascending triangle, which is a bullish pattern.
Fact. Regardless of war, pandemic, FED, news or whatever.

We have two important regions within the parallel channel, within the dollar chart: every time the value reaches the top of the channel, we have strong Bitcoin appreciation; and every time the value reaches the bottom of the channel, we have a strong devaluation of Bitcoin.

In the current scenario, we are in an important region, indicating a possible depletion of dollar strength, through a 'shoulder-head-shoulder' graphic formation, which would be a bullish scenario for Bitcoin.

However, not everything is flowers.
Imagine that you are a whale (if you are, congratulations), and knowing the value of BTC and everything it represents (of you being your own bank, having the freedom to do whatever you want with YOUR money, regardless of parasite politicians), you want to acquire more BTCs.
Well then, what would you do? I would try to buy it as cheaply as possible.
And that includes manipulating the market, creating fear, panic, FOMO (...) (not that I would)

We are seeing a flurry of news, both for the positive and for the negative...
saying that institutional X acquired millions of Bitcoins... that company Y adopted Bitcoin as a form of payment.
'Everyone is buying, now I'll be a millionaire'...

Meanwhile, proponents of the apocalypse always claim that the end of the world is coming: 'war on Ukraine',
'new pandemic wave', 'Fed monetary tightening'...

All this for the sardine to get confused, buying top and selling bottom, and rotating equity.
Who wins are the brokers with the brokerage fees.

And even if it makes sense to execute a sell trade in bottom (imagining the world is going to end), there is always a buyer on the counterparty.

Just to reflect.

So watch out for the news.