Sterling: When FED is over, BOE takes the stage of 'liftoff'.
- Fundamental Analysis
This week, absolutely market focuses on FED Meeting on Wednesday, but UK data and Sterling are also important.
Like I said in E/U analysis and in my page, I believe FED will hike rate and refuse to provide a clear path of next hike, it means I choose bearish bias for Dollar.
UK data this week:
- UK CPI
- UK employment report.
- UK Retail Sales.
If UK CPI on Tuesday is postive , Retail Sales on Thursday is also positive and vice versa : This is basic analysis. UK Employment report is released on Wednesday; this day market pays attention on FED Meeting, I ignore UK employment report. Hence, we only take care UK CPI. The problem is performance of UK data last month were not good as market's expectation, so it's hard to have positive CPI.
However, that is not my primary concern. surely, FED would hike rate, but who will follow FED ? It's only BOE.
BOE is expected the second central bank thinking about liftoff, so when FED is over, market comes back BOE and pricing for Sterling.
Hence, I think there is a lot of room to LONG GBPUSD.
- Technical Analysis
There is no obvious resistance and support levels around current level of G/U. so it's hard to place stop loss and take profit also a good point to entry.
However, I see an interesting point. SMA100 + SMA200+long term descending trend line converge at one point around 1.5330
It's also 2 month high and the ceiling of Kumo cloud.
If GBPUSD breaks long term descending trend line , this will trigger a strong rally of G/U, I expect this will happen.
Finally, I will BUY GBPUSD to 1.5330 and further to 1.5500
This week, absolutely market focuses on FED Meeting on Wednesday, but UK data and Sterling are also important.
Like I said in E/U analysis and in my page, I believe FED will hike rate and refuse to provide a clear path of next hike, it means I choose bearish bias for Dollar.
UK data this week:
- UK CPI
- UK employment report.
- UK Retail Sales.
If UK CPI on Tuesday is postive , Retail Sales on Thursday is also positive and vice versa : This is basic analysis. UK Employment report is released on Wednesday; this day market pays attention on FED Meeting, I ignore UK employment report. Hence, we only take care UK CPI. The problem is performance of UK data last month were not good as market's expectation, so it's hard to have positive CPI.
However, that is not my primary concern. surely, FED would hike rate, but who will follow FED ? It's only BOE.
BOE is expected the second central bank thinking about liftoff, so when FED is over, market comes back BOE and pricing for Sterling.
Hence, I think there is a lot of room to LONG GBPUSD.
- Technical Analysis
There is no obvious resistance and support levels around current level of G/U. so it's hard to place stop loss and take profit also a good point to entry.
However, I see an interesting point. SMA100 + SMA200+long term descending trend line converge at one point around 1.5330
It's also 2 month high and the ceiling of Kumo cloud.
If GBPUSD breaks long term descending trend line , this will trigger a strong rally of G/U, I expect this will happen.
Finally, I will BUY GBPUSD to 1.5330 and further to 1.5500
