- Daily Heikin-Ashi candle had lower low, but if GBPUSD closes above 1,4200 then the candle body will be inside prev day's body. haDelta also failed to make a lower low and turned back above its SMA3.
- 4H we had an extreme lower low forced to lower bound of bearish trend channel, but haDelta did not confirm it with a new low! (positive divergence at oversold level). In result, latest candle is a long wicked doji, which shows a possible strong short term reversal ahead.
- If Bears do not push it lower in the close our tomorrow, then finally we could have the long waited reversal.
I know I've been saying since 1,44+ "oversold", but it really is. The more oversold a mkt becomes, the more agressive the bear market rally can be. A quick spike to 1,4350 is not a big issue, but above that level pull back could extend even to 1,46.
I am still not long outright, just holding March and April 1,4750 Long Calls. These were open as Call spreads, but I bought back the short call legs, as those have lost most of their premium already. This way my long delta risk is increased.
p.s.: as you read my previous post, I have to note one more thing. It looked like a possible drop in bearish momentum with indicators showing positive divergences, but in fact it has dropped a lot lower, became more beaish and oversold. Market can stay "irrational", or oversold longer than you expect. In fact market is always rational, no one should question the price. Conclusion: end of day matters only! As my good friend just told me today: all the rest that happens intraday is just a noise. Try not to see things on the chart, which are not there as firm! And obviously always measure your risk/reward in time, and allocate risk properly!
- 4H we had an extreme lower low forced to lower bound of bearish trend channel, but haDelta did not confirm it with a new low! (positive divergence at oversold level). In result, latest candle is a long wicked doji, which shows a possible strong short term reversal ahead.
- If Bears do not push it lower in the close our tomorrow, then finally we could have the long waited reversal.
I know I've been saying since 1,44+ "oversold", but it really is. The more oversold a mkt becomes, the more agressive the bear market rally can be. A quick spike to 1,4350 is not a big issue, but above that level pull back could extend even to 1,46.
I am still not long outright, just holding March and April 1,4750 Long Calls. These were open as Call spreads, but I bought back the short call legs, as those have lost most of their premium already. This way my long delta risk is increased.
p.s.: as you read my previous post, I have to note one more thing. It looked like a possible drop in bearish momentum with indicators showing positive divergences, but in fact it has dropped a lot lower, became more beaish and oversold. Market can stay "irrational", or oversold longer than you expect. In fact market is always rational, no one should question the price. Conclusion: end of day matters only! As my good friend just told me today: all the rest that happens intraday is just a noise. Try not to see things on the chart, which are not there as firm! And obviously always measure your risk/reward in time, and allocate risk properly!
